Weeks ago we crossed the line where it became likely that the “super delegates” would decide the Democratic nomination.  Now we are approaching the point where they still won’t determine the outcome.  That’s an even bigger nightmare scenario for national Democrats

How’s that?  To date 2,546 delegates have been awarded.  1,340 of them have gone to Barack Obama, the remaining 1,206 to Hillary Clinton (RCP).  Over the next three months another 611 pledged delegates are at stake.  If they break as they have (the winner receiving no more than 52 % or 318 of the remaining), then the super delegates kick in.  The math is a little better for Obama; he would need only 46% of the 795 party leaders to get the nomination, while Hillary would need 63%. 

However, two things conspire against Obama to make it less likely that he can get enough delegates to give him a clear advantage: he is not as popular with the party hierarchy as Hillary is and the remaining states don’t favor him.  (Two of the biggest states–Pennnsylvania and Indiana are currently Clinton country, and the very last 55 delegates decided definitely favor her.)   In other words, the current Obama lead of 140 pledged delegates is likely to tighten, and even if it doesn’t by much, he still has to overcome the Clinton machine in Denver.

So what happens in the increasingly likely event that after the last state votes on June 3 Democrats still don’t have a clear leader? 

That’s when it gets real ugly.  The only remaining contest at that point is the June 7 Puerto Rico primary and Howard Dean will have the unenviable task of telling Florida and Michigan that a territory, along with the unelected super delegates, will get the final word in the selection of the nominee in Denver while Democats in both those states have no say.

Perhaps even uglier is that without both states’ delegates in the mix there still won’t be a clear winner on the first ballot.  Then the horse trading starts for second and subsequent ballots.  All the while, Michigan (a Democratic must-win) and Florida (a Republican must-win) slip ever more firmly into the Republican column in November.

The math is shaping up so that Howard Dean has to solve Florida and Michigan.

UPDATE:

There is definitely a Democratic advantage to an extended primary fight.  Take Ohio and Pennsylvania, for example.  John McCain doesn’t have an infrastructure in those states.  He didn’t need to.  Both of the Democratic candidates will already have recent experience and identified ground troops in both states before the fall contest.  McCain has to build his organization in those two key states from scratch.

THE UGLINESS BEGINS:

It’s no surprise that Florida Governor and John McCain supporter Charlie Crist has issued a statement demanding that Florida’s delegates be seated at the convention.  The surprise is that Michigan’s Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm signed the joint statement with him

Share This