The Clintons: It worked
According to Dick Morris, Bill and Hillary Clinton wanted to make the primary contest a question of race and it worked. Rural white Democrats simply will not vote for a black man.
The disparity in results from county to county is astounding:
Tennessee (statewide): Clinton 54% - Obama 41%
Urban Counties:
Davidson (Nashville): Clinton 38% - Obama 59%
Hamilton (Chattanooga): Clinton 44% - Obama 53%
Knox (Knoxville, UT): Clinton 50% - Obama 44%
Shelby (Memphis): Clinton 29% - Obama 70%
Suburban Counties:
Montgomery (Clarksville & Fort Campbell): Clinton 52% - Obama 43%
Rutherford (Murfreesboro): Clinton 52% - Obama 43%
Rural Counties:
Grundy: Clinton 86% - Obama 7%
Humphreys: Clinton 81% - Obama 9% - Edwards 9%
Polk: Clinton 68% - Edwards 15% - Obama 11%
Rhea: Clinton 77% - Obama 15%
Clinton lost urban counties by about a 2:1 margin, narrowly won suburban counties, and won in rural areas by as much as 10:1 margins. Obama finished so poorly in some counties that he actually finished third in two-man race.
While Republicans certainly have some divisions of their own to heal with John McCain as the likely nominee, Democratic divisions are more serious and will likely be on display at their convention.
(Updated for clarity)
February 6th, 2008 at 8:06 am
Your silence on the Republican breakdown (pun not originally intended, but it works so I’ll leave it) is deafening and instructive. McCain wins the East Tennessee RINO wing of the vote, Romney in Davidson and ring counties, and Huckabee the fundamentalist, social conservatives.
Ed: Don’t know what’s so deafening. I predicted exactly that breakdown yesterday (scroll down to my comment at 5:18 am). What did surprise me however, was the heavy turnout in the rural areas. That gave Huckabee the narrow edge over McCain and a big boost to Hillary.
February 6th, 2008 at 8:09 am
[…] Election ‘08 - Southern state becomes example of race war between democrats? Apparently Clinton was betting on the “good ole boys” not voting for a black man. […]
February 6th, 2008 at 9:30 am
How did the MA counties break down? I mean, MA isn’t *all* urban. It might even be interesting (if it’s possible) to break down by census tract in MA. It’s one thing to note that rural whites don’t seem interested in voting for Obama. It’s another, I think, if non-urban whites (or even urban whites) show similar tendencies, and given Clinton’s win in MA (with Patrick, Kennedy, et al endorsing Obama), *something* had to be going on.
Ed: I don’t know about Massachusetts. Haven’t been there in years and don’t know it politically. If anyone does, please tell.
February 6th, 2008 at 10:45 am
[…] Hobbs doesn’t think the racial breakdown in the Democratic primary vote is surprising due to the racist history of the Democratic […]
February 6th, 2008 at 11:55 am
What about women voting for a woman over a man? Remember that little backlash against Oprah by her loyal fans accusing her of betraying her gender? If even Oprah had to back off from Obama for a week or two, there must be something to it.
Why is it only about racism? Unless you break this down by gender and county, you haven’t done a complete analysis.
Ed: You’re right. I forgot that Grundy County was 86% female. Must be something in the water.
February 6th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Well, Obama did win Williamson County…for whatever its worth.
As for Massachusetts, Obama seemed to do best in the larger cities like Boston and Cambridge…while the results are more mixed than Tennessee, Hillary did better in the smaller counties (don’t know if they are rural or urban, but there are a crap load of counties in Massachusetts).
CNN breaks down the numbers by city/town, instead of county, but adding it up, it looks like in Suffolk County, Boston went for Obama, while the other three went for Hillary.
I’m sure you might’ve seen similar results in Davidson or Hamilton if the results were broken down by precinct (which they will eventually I suppose).
February 6th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Bob-I was referring to the division in the Republican Party in Tennessee, not where the vote comes from. The East Tennessee Howard Baker wing who sat out the Governor’s election in 04(or actively supported Bredesen), when the conservatives dared reject “their” Jim Henry; the Lamar-Ed Bryant race in 02; the Bryant-Corker race in 06; and last but certainly not least the Krumm-Henry race in 06.
Ed: Still don’t understand your point . . . unless it is to note that Tennessee Republicans are a pragmatic lot and recognizing that the Volunteer State is a pretty good bellwether, tend to choose moderates who can win general elections. Of course, Huckabee’s win yesterday blows that theory. BTW, my own failed race was illustrative of nothing except that incumbents almost always win.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
One thing no one disputes is how racially unified the Republicans are.
When it comes to the general election, the strength of a diverse Demcoratic party will certainly contrast with the video of the crowd in the Republican National Convention. One party looks like America, and one does not.
Ed: Good luck trying to keep the Democratic pieces together when Hillary stomps all over blacks with her superdelegates.
February 6th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
The Republican nominee will need much more luck getting any black votes after more than 2 decades of being stomped all over by bad domestic policy. Black Democrats will support their party just like the party will support Obama if he becomes the party’s nominee. Obama is a Democratic front runner for a reason and that reason points to a much larger problem with racial issues within the Republican party.
February 6th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
And then you went on to cite what happened in exactly ONE state, Tennessee. Pretty flimsy evidence in support of your argument — particularly when you consider that Obama won Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota and Utah on Tuesday. Or did you really mean to say rural white redneck Democrats won’t vote for Obama?
February 6th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Black Democrats will support their party just like the party will support Obama if he becomes the party’s nominee.
Probably not the best way to phrase that.
Look, its not impossible to believe that the Republicans could nominate a person that could make inroads with the black community; I think if Huckabee had the nomination, that might’ve happened with Hillary at the top of the Democratic ticket…but McCain? Doubtful.
February 6th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
The numbers - rural v urban/suburban are simply astounding. Bob is right too that it is likely to get quite dicey… some group - women or blacks - is going to get pissed off in a big way.
Finally, we’ve got to do something about that gender imbalance in Grundy County. Have any government studies been done?
February 7th, 2008 at 9:12 am
In my opinion, the Clintons are not just trying to remind white voters that Obama is black. They are also trying to perpetuate the idea that black people are just helpless without the Democratic party. That is what Hillary meant by her “It took a president” comment. She wasn’t just denigrating MLK, she was telling African-Americans that they can’t do anything on their own.
February 11th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
[…] than a few good Democrats bristled at my suggestion that racism accounted for some of Hillary Clinton’s margin over Barack Obama in the Tennessee primary […]
February 11th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
The Williamson County vote for Obama is telling. Williamson is wealthy and well-educated. Democrats there are like wealthy and well-educated Democrats elsewhere in the country. The Clinton vote in places like Grundy County is almost certainly a result of racism in part. But more than that, it’s a result of unfamiliarity. If you’ve never heard of Barack Obama before, you think the worse when you see his name on the ballot. I remember living in Illinois when his name popped up in the Senate primary in 2004 and I couldn’t figure out who he was.
With absolutely no campaigning in Tennessee many low-information blue dog rural Democrats may have just voted with the familiar in Clinton. In many ways Tennessee was like Florida in that Obama simply didn’t show up. He did better among rural whites in Georgia and Alabama than he did in Tennessee because he campaigned there and even the most conservative blue dogs knew he wasn’t a Muslim Manchurian candidate or a Al Sharpton redux.
February 12th, 2008 at 7:42 am
[…] to fret about the possibility of racism existing within their own voter base. There are pieces here, here and […]
March 6th, 2008 at 8:03 am
[…] joins Tennessee in providing ample evidence that rural white Democrats will not vote for a black man: . . . 81 […]
March 12th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
BOBKRUMM.COM
“February 6, 2008
The Clintons: It worked
Byline: bob | Category: Race, TN Politics, 2008 Presidential Election | Posted at: 5:55 am
According to Dick Morris, Bill and Hillary Clinton wanted to make the primary contest a question of race and it worked. Rural white Democrats simply will not vote for a black man.
The disparity in results from county to county is astounding:”
Now it is weeks later and in Mississippi Barack got 90% of the Black vote and only 25 percent of the white. The strategy is still working.
Hillary and Bill’s calls for a negotiated ticket is a last ditch strategy of a failing campaign. Panic breeds desperate measures. The prospect of a failed entitlement erodes rational thought processes. Deep seated and suppressed prejudices begin to seem rational.
Hillary’s call to be at the top of the ticket will only perpetuate the matriarchal stereotype found in the black community. I almost can hear her say, “This is my village and I make the rules”.
Bill’s reputation as a friend of the black community appears to be in decline now that a Harvard educated black man has challenged him on his playing field. His pragmatic position of “making the primary a question of race” still carries the onus of the Old South where putting down the uppity black man so that he knows his place, still exists.
Hillary’s proposal is a blatant racial attack on Barack. Of all people on this planet, he gets it. So far he has kept his own council and not responded.
April 3rd, 2008 at 8:22 am
[…] been saying the same thing ever since the Tennessee primary two months ago but Michael Barone says it far more […]