Who’s stalking whom?
Some speculate that Fred Thompson went easy on John McCain last night and is playing the role of stalking horse for him. I disagree and here’s why:
Fred beats any one of the Republican candidates head to head. Doesn’t matter which one. However, unlike Mitt, he doesn’t have the resources to wait until the primary becomes a two-man race. So Fred has to make South Carolina a binary battle now.
Michigan works in Fred’s favor in his goal to eliminate Romney. Romney has to win that primary held just three days before South Carolina. If he doesn’t he won’t have a “72-hour plan,” instead he’ll have three days of being dogged by the “When Will Mitt Withdraw?” story. The fact that he pulled his advertising in the Palmetto State fuels that rumor. A Mitt loss in Michigan tells South Carolina that he will not be the nominee, so it’s time to look to someone else to support. If, however, Mitt wins Michigan it doesn’t matter what Fred did in last night’s debate. He wasn’t going to win in South Carolina against John McCain and a reinvigorated multi-millionaire. Fred is depending upon McCain to eliminate Romney for him. So Fred couldn’t risk knocking McCain down.
Huckabee is the more dangerous near-target. He also has to lose Michigan. But losing there isn’t going to hurt Huckabee’s support in South Carolina as long as Huck can keep the illusion of conservatism about him as he goes into the South. Fred needed to tear away from Huckabee every conservative voter who wasn’t going to cling until the bitter end simply because he’s an evangelical like them. Fred needed to turn Huckabee into the worst thing imaginable to a Palmetto Republican: a liberal Democrat.
Fred went light on John McCain because he needs McCain to win Michigan. If either of the others win there, South Carolina is a three-way contest and Fred loses and has to drop out of the race. Of the threee candidates contesting him in the Palmetto State, McCain was the only one Fred couldn’t eliminate, so Fred left him alive to deliver a death blow to Romney in Michigan while Fred concentrated on killing Huckabee himself.
In addition to being a masterful oratorical performance by Fred, last night’s debate was that three-dimensional game of chess that Romney was talking about. I think Fred Thompson accomplished what he intended to do in last night’s debate. Now we have to wait and see if his plan worked.
UPDATE:
I just realized that if Fred’s strategy works, the race for president could very well come down to a contest between four Senators: Clinton, McCain, Obama, and Thompson.
ALSO:
With Republican voters I think Fred’s plan is sound. But what about Democratic voters?
Huh? That’s because in Michigan there is no Democratic primary; what mischief will they concoct?
Here’s another Dem backing a different Republican. I wonder if all the meddling Dems will just cancel each other out.
MORE:
Steve Gill and Larry Woods just discussed a branch to this plan. They contend that Fred lives to fight another day even if he doesn’t win SC, so long as he finishes close and the winner is McCain. That sets up a contest in Florida between McCain the frontrunner, a reinvigorated Fred, and the big question mark, Rudy. Woods and Gill think that McCain and Rudy share enough of the same supporters that they like Fred’s chances in that contest. Either way, Fred’s immediate problem (assuming that Romney loses Michigan) is Huckabee.
January 11th, 2008 at 6:55 am
I think that Fred is used to treating McCain with deference because of their time together in the Senate .. old habits die hard.
January 11th, 2008 at 7:33 am
Mark,
I think Fred is kind to all the candidates .. and if asked … he would highlight his differences with McCain.
I do believe Bob’s points may indeed be accurate. I respect a man (Fred) who has no personal ambition for leadership but offers himself up as a sacrifice to his nation. Fred is such a man. McCain has been running for the Presidency for over 8 years. I think Fred is feeling it now … he’s feeling that he can be that conservative powerhouse, a true standard bearer of the Reagan Coalition. I think Fred now believes he has a shot. And he does. Fred: go for it brother!! We’re with ya.
January 11th, 2008 at 7:33 am
That does not make any sense. Right now, McCain is the stronger adversity and a McCain win in Michigan would make him even that much more difficult to beat.
You don’t want to knock out your weakest opponent in order to make your strongest opponent stronger. You want to prop up the weaker a bit and weaken the stronger. I agree with Mark, and further, he’s in large measure McCain in another suit.
I can’t understand how conservatives can dislike McCain so much for McCain-Feingold and not care that Fred was “instrumental” in getting it passed, nor that Fred and McCain worked together on so much other onerous legislation together.
January 11th, 2008 at 8:05 am
[…] idea is that Fred needs to make South Carolina a two-man race to have any chance of winning. Krumm thinks that by attacking Huck last night and then counting on McCain to eliminate Mitt in Michigan, […]
January 11th, 2008 at 8:06 am
[…] But Bob Krumm’s analysis is much more thoughtful and makes a good case that there is some very intricate strategery taking place. Conservatives get very frustrated with George Bush for not doing what we want or how […]
January 11th, 2008 at 8:24 am
I couldn’t agree with your post more. My thinking was that Mccain is going to have a tough enough fight to maintain the conservative base and with Mitt’s blood in the water and Huckabee’s soft spots so vulnerable he was wiser to peel votes from those two candidates (or perhaps more accurately the votes of those opposing those two candidates) and he did so without tilting at the windmill of McCain.
Your post however puts this in the context of the primary battle where he only marginally hopes to win Michigan but needs to win SC. If Mitt is out and Huck is weakened then he can beat McCain.
The bottom line for Thompson is this, if everyone that says they would vote for him if they thought he had a chance would actually vote for him he would win.
January 11th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Spot on analysis, Bob.
I also think that Fred isn’t going to burn any bridges to good friends unless he really has to.
January 11th, 2008 at 8:46 am
[…] Bob Krumm (who live-blogged the event): Fred went light on John McCain because he needs McCain to win Michigan. If either of the others win there, South Carolina is a three-way contest and Fred loses and has to drop out of the race. Of the threee candidates contesting him in the Palmetto State, McCain was the only one Fred couldn’t eliminate, so Fred left him alive to deliver a death blow to Romney in Michigan while Fred concentrated on killing Huckabee himself. […]
January 11th, 2008 at 8:56 am
[…] BobKrumm.com » Who’s stalking whom? Fred went light on John McCain because he needs McCain to win Michigan. If either of the others win there, South Carolina is a three-way contest and Fred loses and has to drop out of the race. Of the threee candidates contesting him in the Palmetto State, McCain was the only one Fred couldn’t eliminate, so Fred left him alive to deliver a death blow to Romney in Michigan while Fred concentrated on killing Huckabee himself. […]
January 11th, 2008 at 9:08 am
[…] Bob Krumm, I think Fred Thompson accomplished what he intended to do in last night’s debate. Now we have to wait and see if his plan worked. […]
January 11th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Lloyd G. makes a good point:
“The bottom line for Thompson is this, if everyone that says they would vote for him if they thought he had a chance would actually vote for him he would win.”
The self-fulfillment of established expectations. It is time to call out everyone who is conservative. Please honestly check the candidate you are supporting. Is your candidate *really* conservative? Has your candidate come to new positions in order to woo conservative votes? Let’s do as Lloyd G. suggests, vote for the conservative, and the conservative will win.
I want a conservative. Fred.
PS-Nice piece, Bob.
January 11th, 2008 at 10:00 am
The Strategy of the Indirect Approach says you always go for the weakest opponent when fighting a coalition. It gives a moral victory and pries apart the “inevitability” of the opposition.
Fred is all by himself in the campaign. If he can rally Reagan Conservatives he can win the nomination and beat who ever the Ds run. Especially Hillary.
There is a lot of support across the ideological spectrum for small government. Smokers. Property rights people. 2nd Amendment people etc.
Fred is the only candidate who can rally them all.
January 11th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Uh. Fred thinks McCain Find Gold was a mistake.
What does McCain think?
January 11th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Bob, excellent analysis, and I think so based on the strength of your reasoning, not just because I like Fred.
This year is the long game, more chess, less media driven, and it drives media nuts.
Unless there is a complete break-away candidate who drives everyone else out and wins by default, nobody is out who doesn’t want to be out. Not necessarily a brokered convention, but who ends up looking best after the others drop out.
When it’s down to 2 or 3, McCain will not be the one who wins. I am afraid Giuliani is in the same boat, same with Huckabilly.
As much as I think GOP voters and poll-takers elsewhere are nuts not to already see Fred as the answer, they definitely will when Romney fades, and McCain and Giuliani fall to their eventual and inevitable minority GOP status. They cannot represent the whole.
Fred can, and will, if Romney, Huck and McCain tear it up.
January 11th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
gregh:
If all else is equal, you’re probably right. However, two things mar your analysis. First, Huckabee isn’t weak, more’s the pity. Second, if attacking the weaker one can give you the kind of big jump you need to deal with the stronger one, then that’s the thing to do. Krumm is arguing that such a chance has appeared for Thompson.
January 11th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
gregh Says
“I can’t understand how conservatives can dislike McCain so much for McCain-Feingold and not care that Fred was “instrumental” in getting it passed”
Because Fred disavowed the bill?
January 12th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Let’s see here - Thompson voted for McCain-Feingold, Huckabee voted for Wayne Dumond. They both regret it. Which one can be fixed?
January 14th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
[…] Rightwing Nuthouse who echoes what I said last week. […]
January 15th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
[…] Romney, who was gasping for air after two knockdowns is now resuscitated. Those who scoffed at my earlier notion that the reason that Fred went easy on McCain (until today) because Fred benefitted from a Romney […]
February 6th, 2008 at 10:54 am
[…] caucus was only five weeks ago) there is only one reason that Mitt Romney has made it this far: Michigan. Had he lost there, he would have been on death watch before South Carolina voted three days […]