If he wins Iowa, the Huckabees need honey . . . not Rollins’ vinegar
Alternate Title: “What does it profit a man to win Iowa if he loses in November?”
If Mike Huckabee wants to win the Republican nomination he is going to have to understand that getting 25% of a five-man race in one state that is just one percent of the population won’t do it. You have to pick up the votes of those who support other candidates but don’t make the cut coming out of the early primary states if you ever expect to get the 50% support that earns you the nomination . . . much less the Presidency.
One way to NOT accomplish that is by sending your Campaign Manager onto radio shows to belittle those you think are most likely to drop out of the race. YOU NEED THEIR SUPPORTERS TO GET TO THE NOMINATION! Not to mention, you definitely need them in November.
I just spent the last couple hours calling voters in Iowa. To every person who was planning to support another candidate in the caucus tomorrow, I wished their candidate the best and asked them that if November came around and Fred Thompson was the Republican nominee, would they support Fred? To a man, everyone said that they would be more than happy to vote for Fred if he was the nominee.
If Mike Huckabee (whose trendlines, btw, in Iowa are down, while Fred’s are up) ever expects to earn my support next November, he’ll do it by giving my candidate the respect he deserves. And if he doesn’t, he’ll continue to send out Ed Rollins to piss off the three-quarters of Republicans who do not support him.
(ht: Hot Air and Instapundit)
NOTE: BTW, don’t take this as an admission that I think Fred won’t come out of Iowa better than expected. I’m just saying that Huckabee isn’t playing to win nationally . . . he’s playing to not lose Iowa. And he’s doing so in a way that, if he does the latter, will make it much harder for him to do the former.
UPDATE:
Bill Bennett calls Huck a “temporary excitation”. The above is an example why. Mike Huckabee isn’t running a campaign to try and pick up the supporters of also-ran candidates. He’s hoping that his choir will carry him all the way to victory in November.
The man from Hope needs a better plan.
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:16 am
[…] Bob Krumm argues that no matter what happens in Iowa Mike Huckabee is not blazing a path that will lead him to the nomination: If Mike Huckabee wants to win the Republican nomination he is going to have to understand that getting 25% of a five-man race in one state that is just one percent of the population won’t do it. You have to pick up the votes of those who support other candidates but don’t make the cut coming out of the early primary states if you ever expect to get the 50% support that earns you the nomination . . . much less the Presidency. […]