Mark Hemingway’s sources agree with my speculation that the Passive Aggressive Pastor pulled yesterday’s stunt because he has seen his poll numbers and knows that they are “end-of-campaign bad“:

Other Iowa operatives claim that Huckabee’s internal polling weaknesses meant he didn’t see his downtrend there until after other campaigns did. So now a few days before the election, Huck’s panicked and doesn’t know what he’s doing — hence yesterday’s press conference.

Think about Huckabee’s position now: He has little money, little name recognition, no national organization, and no state that is in play for him until at least South Carolina. He has gambled it all on Iowa, and needs a first-place or close-second finish to give him the momentum (and the cash) to continue for the next 23 days before he gets another opportunity to win. Remember that four years ago Howard Dean withdrew less than 30 days after his third-place Iowa finish and he had raised $40 million. Huckabee’s take is closer to one-tenth that amount.

A third-place finish in the Hawkeye State means that Huckabee is done. Sooner rather than later. That, I suspect is what the internal polls show. And that is why he had to roll the dice yesterday.

UPDATE:

Mark Steyn also makes the 2004 analogy: “A Huckabee loss in Iowa would burst his bubble as surely as it did Howard Dean’s.”

Share This