2014 Election Results

Byline: | Category: Uncategorized | Posted at: Tuesday, 4 November 2014

Live feed continuously updated.  For a guideline of what I’m looking at, check out this earlier post.

1903 Eastern

Good news for Republicans.  Fox News has called Kentucky for Mitch McConnell.  Right on target with the 2010 result in Kentucky.

No surprise:  Georgia is too close to call.

Also good news for Republicans.  Virginia is too close to call.  The longer this goes on, the better the news this is for Republicans.

1925 Eastern

Good news for Democrats.  With 68% of precincts reporting, Grimes is exceeding Rand Paul’s level of support in Fayette County, home to Kentucky’s second largest city (Lexington) and the University of Kentucky.  She is up almost 6,000 votes and 9%.  Rand Paul lost Fayette by only 1,200 votes four years ago.  McConnell lost in 2008 by 8%.  And that was in a disastrous Republican year.  If those numbers hold, it’s a good sign for how Democrats and how they may be doing with younger voters.

1930 Eastern

No surprise.  Republicans pick up West Virginia.

No surprise.  John Kasich wins in Ohio.

No surprise.  North Carolina Senate is too close to call.

1935 Eastern

Bad news for Democrats.  Mark Warner still hasn’t won his race.  Exit poll internals are horrible for him. He is underwater on the favorable/unfavorable rating and Ed Gillespie is ahead on that question.  (See UPDATE at 1945)  This is not at all like anyone expected.  Keep in mind that exit polls have errors.  Right now, Democrats have to hope that the exit polls are wrong.

1940 Eastern

Michael Barone is reporting that with 100% reporting Gillespie is leading Culpepper County 64-33.  George Allen in a losing effort won Culpepper 58-42.  This is the kind of exurban county and the kind of margin that Ed Gillespie needs to win if he is to make a realistic go of Virginia.

1945 Eastern

Fox News just showed that Warner is winning the favorable/unfavorable race 56-43.  That’s different from what I first heard ten minutes ago.

2025 Eastern

Good news for Republicans.  Both CNN and Fox News are reporting that Mitch McConnell leads Allison Grimes 56-41.  Of course only 65% of precincts are reporting, but because the eastern half of the state has a one-hour head start in vote counting, the results from the western half of the state aren’t likely to diminish McConnell’s lead.  Bottom line:  if this vote holds up, Mitch McConnell’s 14-point margin will beat the 8-point two-way race spread predicted by RCP.  That would be HUGE.

2030 Eastern.

No surprise.  Fox News just called both Arkansas races for the GOP candidates Tom Cotton and Asa Hutchinson the moment the polls closed.

2035 Eastern

No surprise.  New Hampshire is still too close to call. But with 16% reporting, Jeanne Shaheen has an 8-point lead.

Potentially earth-shaking bad new for Democrats.  With 59% of the vote counted, Ed Gillespie has a 51-46 lead in Virginia.  No one expected this race to be uncalled 90 minutes after the polls closed.  Even if Gillespie loses, it shows that Democrats are fighting to hold their own terrain while Republicans have an advantage on offense.

2040 Eastern

Fox News is reporting bad news for the Clintons.  Bill Clinton campaigned hard in Arkansas and Kentucky.  His candidates lost fast.  On the other hand, I think that this really tells you how far gone the South is for Democrats.   (Juan Williams supports a version of this view.)  Of course, that wouldn’t be a good sign for Georgia, Louisiana, or North Carolina.

2045 Eastern

Speaking of which . . . Michael Barone is tweeting 100% counted counties in Georgia and Virginia that are showing better results for Republicans Perdue and Gillespie than Republicans in previous years.

2050 Eastern

Bad/Good news for both parties.  With 64% of the vote counted, Ed Gillespie still has a 5-point lead. Nobody expected this.  But what is really unexpected is that in neighboring North Carolina, which is a shade more red, Kay Hagan has a 7-point lead with 46% counted.  If the two results were reversed, I wouldn’t have batted an eye.  If both vote counts hold up, this will definitely merit a closer post-election look.

2055 Eastern

No surprise.  These results came in earlier–in fact, when the polls in both states closed.  Democrats won senate seats in New Jersey and Illinois handily.

2100 Eastern

No surprise.  The GOP picked up a third seat in South Dakota.

No surprise.  Michigan Dems hold the Senate seat there.

No surprise.  Colorado is too close to call.

No surprise.  Kansas is too close to call.

No surprise.  New Hampshire is still too close to call.  (But it’s looking like it’s just a matter of time until Shaheen gets the call.)

No surprise.  Georgia is still too close to call.

No surprise.  North Carolina is still too close to call.

No surprise.  Minnesota Dems hold on to the Senate and the Gubernatorial seats.

Big surprise and bad news for Dems.  Virginia is still too close to call two hours after the polls closed.

2110 Eastern

Some networks are calling VA10 for the GOP candidate John Foust.  That would be a good sign for Ed Gillespie.

2115 Eastern

With 78% counted Gillespie’s lead in VA is down to 2-points.  This race has the feel of ultimate Democratic victory.  But still, this is a race that is about 10 points off of the RCP average in the GOP’s favor.  Even as a former professional pollster, I’m heartened by the notion that voters matter more than polls.

On the flip side, Kay Hagan’s lead is down to two points with 60% counted.  It’s hard to see VA going red and NC staying blue.  If NC flips but VA doesn’t and both (obviously) are very close, that almost perfectly matches the 2012 results and would be strong indicator of the nationalization of these races.

2129 Eastern

Kay Hagan’s lead is down to 1% and 27,000 votes.

Gillespie’s lead is also 1% and 23,000 votes.

Meanwhile in GA, Perdue has 60% with 36% in.  Michael Barone is looking at the counties and thinking that this one is close to being called as a victory without a runoff required.

2130 Eastern

Jeanne Shaheen’s lead is down to 7,000 votes with 37% counted, a 4-point spread.  Still too close  to call.

Here’s where we are now.  Among the RCP tossup states in the Senate, none have been called.  The two “pink” seats (Arkansas and Kentucky) were called immediately.  The one “light blue” seat (Virginia) is still too close to call 150 minutes after the polls closed.  Bottom line: I’d rather be in the Republican’s shoes right now.

2138 Eastern

No surprise.  Louisiana will go to a runoff.

2139 Eastern

No surprise.  New Hampshire will stay blue.  Right now it looks like a 52-48 margin.  I’m not sure what we can extrapolate from this race for the rest of the field.  The key point is that this is the first “toss-up” state to be called for either side.

2145 Eastern

Let me get back to Kentucky.  With 94% counted, Mitch McConnell has a 15-point lead over Allison Grimes.  This is almost double his RCP lead.  Points to consider:

Nate Silver says that there is no such thing as momentum.  In a strictly mathematical sense, he’s right. But polling isn’t math, not entirely.  What we’ve seen in the last week is:

(1) A return to the state’s bright red hue.  I think we’re seeing the same thing in New Hampshire: a return to the bluish purple tint of that state.  If everything breaks the way that 2012 went, Republicans will win North Carolina and Georgia, while losing Colorado and Iowa.  I don’t think that’s going to be the way it ends, but we’ll see.

(2)  President Obama is creating a ceiling for Democrats.  I don’t think that anyone is surprised by that, but it certainly undercuts the argument that you’ve heard that says that Dem candidates should have embraced the president more.  Sorry, but Grimes was mired in the low 40s and that’s where she is going to end up.

2154 Eastern

Fox News just called Colorado for the GOP candidate Cory Gardner.  Huge news that it was called this early.  So much for the “war on women”.

2155 Eastern

From my earlier post:  (2014 results in bold)

Boone

2010 Sen:  R over D, 24,332 (74.4%) to 8,364 (25.6%) 23,200 to 9,800

2012 Pres:  R over D, 35,922 (68.4%) to 15,629 (29.8%)

Campbell:

2010 Sen:  R over D, 18,386 (64.9%) to 9,948 (35.1%) 17,600 to 11,000

2012 Pres:  R over D, 24,240 (60.3%) to 15,080 (37.5%)

Kenton:

2010 Sen:  R over D, 29,372 (66.8%) to 14,582 (33.2%)  28,300 to 16,700

2012 Pres:  R over D, 41,389 (61.1%) to 24,920 (36.8%)

In all three Cincinnati suburban ring counties McConnell didn’t match Rand Paul’s numbers from four years ago.  In fact, the numbers are exactly in alignment with what I would have expected if the RCP numbers were correct.  Remember, the RCP two-way race in 2010 projected an 11-point lead, when this year it anticipated an 8-point lead.  So a strong Republican win, albeit by a smaller amount than four years ago, is exactly what we should have expected in these three counties.  That Republicans have won so handily in Kentucky means that the result was decided by a large amount elsewhere in the state.

But where?  In Fayette County, McConnell lost by 6,000 votes, five times what Rand Paul lost by four years ago.  In Franklin County, McConnell beat Paul’s margin, but only by a mere 300 seats.  In Jefferson County, McConnell fell short of Paul’s margin by about 7,00o votes.

It looks like Eastern and Western Kentucky coal counties trounced the Dems.  If this is true, it means that rural and industrial labor may completely be divorced from Democrats forever.  (BTW, Elliott County hasn’t reported its votes.)

2220 Eastern

Meanwhile, it looks like Scott Walker is going to hold on to win Wisconsin for a third time in four years. And it looks like a margin of error greater than what RCP predicted.

2225 Eastern

Mark Warner is now ahead of Ed Gillespie by 2,500 votes.  And it looks like the remaining uncounted votes are in NOVA.  Great fight.  And a huge surprise, but it would appear that the Democrat candidate is going to hold on to win by a far narrower margin than anyone expected.

Meanwhile in North Carolina, Tom Tillis is up by 31,000 votes (2%) and only 15% of precincts remaining to be counted.  Of course, where those precincts are means a great deal.

Also in Georgia, there’s no question that Perdue is going to beat Nunn.  Perdue is now at 57%, with 64% of the vote counted.  If he stays over 50%, Republicans hold this seat.

2230 Eastern

I haven’t heard it mentioned yet.  One of the “streaks” that had been going against Republicans was their recent inability to beat a sitting incumbent.  So far, it looks like they have unseated Mark Udall in Colorado and Mark Pryor in Arkansas.

2235 Eastern

Pat Roberts has a 4-point lead in Kansas (17,000 votes).  No one knows was tracking this race eight weeks ago and there is no history of strong polling in this state.  Thus no one knows which way this might turn.

Meanwhile in Iowa, the returns are very spotty and Bruce Braley is up over Joni Ernst.

2240 Eastern

Tom Tillis’ margin is larger.  It’s still only 2%, but that is now 53,000 votes.

No surprise.  In Michigan the Republican governor won re-election.  Along with Wiconsin’s Walker, these are huge gains for budget-cutting governors and against government unions.

2245 Eastern

In Arizona the ice cream man won.  This was a Republican gubernatorial hold.

In Florida Republican Rick Scott is ahead by 80,000 votes with 97% counted.  Close to a call.

2246 Eastern

HUGE NEWS.  Republicans will hold Kansas.  If Dems don’t take Georgia (and it looks like they won’t), they have to hold Alaska, and North Carolina, and then Louisiana again next month.  Not likely.

In North Carolina, Tom Tillis still has a 52,000 vote lead and there’s only 7% of the vote left to count.  Karl Rove just named four counties where if Kay Hagan is going to win, she has to run up the vote.  Only one of those counties has enough uncounted votes left to count.  It is Mecklenburg (Charlotte).  Depending on where they are in the county will determine the outcome.  Still, it’s looking better for Tillis than I think the RCP average predicted yesterday. (538 is saying a similar thing:  Wake County (Raleigh) is not going to yield any more votes for Hagan.)

2300 Eastern

Democrats will flip no GOP seats.  The last possibility, Georgia, was just called for the Republican Perdue. The win of any one of these seats–Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, or Virginia gives the 51st seat to the GOP.  If it doesn’t happen tonight, it could be Louisiana next month.

Right now, it looks to me like Republicans will win 53 seats, with 54 very possible, and 55 a still remote possibility.

2305 Eastern

HUGE news.  I will be able to buy wine in grocery stores.  If you don’t live in Tennessee, you won’t comprehend how incredibly stupid it is that has taken this long.  Worse still, the new law won’t take effect until July 2016.

2308 Eastern

Michael Grimm won NY-1.  He is under indictment for 20 felony counts.  And yet, he is still better than the other guy.  Watch the Jon Stewart story on this race and you’ll understand that the Democrat in this race is a complete idiot.  Congratulations, Staten Island.  In your choice between crook and the dunce, you chose the lesser of two very bad evils.  But seriously, is this the best you can do?

2310 Eastern and here’s an update.  The GOP has 50 senate seats already locked up and no seats that the Dems will take.  Here are the seats still in play:

North Carolina.  The margin is 46k in favor of the GOP with 4% remaining.

Virginia.  The margin is 11k in favor of the Dem with 7% remaining.

Iowa.  The Republican Joni Ernst is leading 50-47 with 53% of the vote in.

Alaska is still voting.

538 is giving Dems a 1% chance.

2322 Eastern

Game.  Set.  Match.  Joni Ernst wins Iowa.  Republicans unseated a third sitting Democratic senator and now have at least 51 seats.  Four more are possibilities, although Virginia is looking very unlikely.  Still, 54 is a very possible amount for the GOP.

Oh, BTW, I called it.  I said that Iowa would be the 51st seat.  (Of course, I didn’t expect that CO would be called by now and I expected NC already would have fallen.)

Here’s why that matters:  that’s a big cushion going into 2016 when the mix of states with seats up for grabs in the Senate is less favorable to the GOP.  Of course, being a presidential year, whomever wins that race will likely have coattails.  Dan McClaughlin makes the case that the Democrats don’t have a structural advantage going into 2016.  I agree and will make that case in the coming days.  But even if a Democrat wins the presidency, he might have to carry seats to get back to 50.  If the Republican wins, that’s a tall order for Democrats.

2329 Eastern

Speaking of North Carolina, Tom Tillis wins.  It’s now a net at least 7-seat victory for the GOP and at least four sitting senators fell to Republicans.

2340 Eastern

Let’s look at some of the gubernatorial races.

Right now Republicans have held tossup seats in Florida, Georgia (seriously, did Dems expect to win with a Carter?) Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Dems have held onto seats close seats in Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.

The only gubernatorial change is that Republicans have picked up a seat in Illinois (metaphor alert). (UPDATE: I forgot Arkansas; that’s two. I also forgot Democrats won PA.  Both of these were off my radar because they weren’t really close.)

Here is where some of the other governor’s races sit:  Republicans lead in Colorado, Connecticut, Kansas (thanks to Pat Roberts–more specifically thanks to Democrats nationalizing the Kansas senate race), Massachusetts (seriously), Maryland (even more seriously) and Maine.  Dems hold the current lead in no gubernatorial race they don’t currently lead.  Four of the above seats would be GOP gains.

2345 Eastern

I’m glad she won and her past indicates that she has a strong future.  But Joni Ernst won’t ever realize that future if she doesn’t get rid of that annoying laugh of hers.

2350 Eastern

Martha Chokely will never be heard from again.  At least that’s what Massachusetts Democrats hope.  The GOP picked up that seat.

Also, I missed earlier that PA and AR were pickups (one Repub and one Dem) when I counted up the gubernatorial seats.  This now makes a net GOP +2 in governor’s races.

2356 Eastern

Mark Warner is the “apparent” winner in Virginia.  The margin is only 12k.  But that’s a lot to make up in a recount.  There are still votes outstanding.  But still it looks bad for the GOP candidate Ed Gillespie.  That said, he may be the biggest winner of the night.  I expect that in the morning they will look at what the final count looks like and then determine if there is anything there to contest.

0005 Eastern

Maryland and Virginia are both major surprises tonight.  Even if the GOP candidates end up losing, nobody expected these contests to be that close.  Question:  did the Redskins name controversy crush Democratic support?  It may seem like a little thing, but that’s the point.  Is the (former) Senate Majority Leader’s desire to use the federal government to change the name of a sports franchise a symbol of a massive overreach of federal power?  Discuss in the comments.

0015 Eastern

Republican Paul LePage holds on to win the governor’s seat in Maine.  Alaska, where voting is still ongoing, and Kansas, where Sam Brownback is holding a 2.5% lead with 17% of the vote left to count, are the only tossup incumbent seats held by the GOP that remain to be decided.  Meanwhile, Colorado and Connecticut could still flip to the GOP.  And in both, the Republican candidate currently is winning–albeit by less than a point in each race.

Bottom line:  Governor’s races were as nationalized in 2014 as were the senatorial races.  I’m not surprised by this, as it is a natural result of the 40-year ongoing ideological homogenization of the parties, as well as by the demographic stratification of the Democratic Party.  When your base is near unanimity among blacks, single women, and government workers, and huge negative margins with almost everyone else, you’re only going to do well where those demographics approach a majority.

Oh, btw, President Obama waded into governor’s races when it looked like senatorial candidates treated him like President Ebola.  Just like Clinton’s foray into the Southeast, that didn’t work out so well.

0035 Eastern

With 65% of the vote counted, the margin in the Connecticut governor’s race is 7.  Not seven percent, but seven votes.

0030 Eastern

HUGE Upset

Republican Larry Hogan will win the governor’s race in Maryland.  This is the fourth GOP pickup in gubernatorial races against only one loss.

Two lessons:  Barack Obama, who actually campaigned here, is now persona non grata everywhere.  And don’t run against the Redskins.

0033 Eastern

Sam Brownback will win Kansas.  I called this days ago.  By nationalizing the Pat Roberts senate race, Brownback got a boost.  I submit that Brownback was not going to win if the Roberts-Orman race had never heated up.  By playing games in Kansas, Dems lost both races.

0037 Eastern

538 is reporting that Dems had an apparent 6-point advantage in the senate polls and a 2-point apparent advantage in gubernatorial races.  I had a sense that it was going to be like this, although not by this much.  This is a wave, which I define as nearly every race tilting in the same direction.  That’s what happened tonight.

That said, two years ago, I made the analogy to polls being like hitting in major league baseball.  If we poll people randomly–relatively easy to do–we are only half the way there.  The harder part is knowing who is going to show up to vote.  The analogy I made then was that predicting electoral outcomes was like looking at a pitcher-batter lineup and being able to project exactly where the ball was going to land.  A good pollster can do that.  But what the pollster can’t do is to know in which ballpark the game is played. In baseball a long line drive to left field is a home run in Wrigley if the wind is blowing out.  It’s just a long single at Fenway.

Shorter and to the point: pollsters can tell you almost exactly how people are going to vote.  But they can’t tell you who will vote.

0059 Eastern

While I await the Alaska outcome, let’s summarize:

Republicans have won the Senate with at least 52 seats with another GOP gain likely in Louisiana and the GOP favored (at least for another minute) in Alaska.  That’s a net gain of 7 to 9 seats.

Republicans have gained at least a net three seats in governor’s races.  Colorado is looking like another gain.  Connecticut is still a possible gain.  And Alaska is the only remaining state where Dems can pick up a seat.  That’s a net GOP gain of 2 to 5 seats for the GOP when the predictions going into tonight were for a loss of 1 to 2 seats.  This is an astounding loss for Dems.  Look also where the GOP won:  Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin, and potentially Colorado.  These are presidential battleground seats.  New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the only presidential battleground seats that Democrats won tonight.  This will have an effect in 2016.

In the House, West Virginia went all Republican.  So did Arkansas.  The GOP picked up all but one seat in Iowa.  I predicted this based on what happened up ticket.  In New Hampshire, Democrat Shea-Porter is again the former congressman from her district.  NY-24 flipped GOP.  A seat in Illinois flipped too.  Georgia and North Carolina house seats also benefitted from upstream GOP wins.  The only tossup that the Dems currently have taken is FL-27.  There are still dozens of seats left to be decided, but it looks like a double-digit gain in the House, and then some.

Finally, before I go to sleep for the night, let’s look at the exit polls in the national House races.

Whites voted 60-38 for the GOP.  That’s right in line with expectations.  What is unexpected is that whites made up 75% of the electorate.  Blacks went 89-10 for Dems.  Ten points is way more than anyone expected among blacks.  Latinos went 63-35 for Dems.  Worse still for Dems is that the Latino vote was only 8% of the total.  That’s a level of slippage that will crush Dems if it continues.  Asians split their vote, going 50-49 for the Dems.  That’s has huge implications for the future when you have one party that wants to treat all minorities alike.  Those minorities have a vote themselves.

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