The scenarios: 4-Gallup tracking poll is right

Byline: | Category: 2012 | Posted at: Sunday, 4 November 2012

(With just two days left before the election, I foresee see five possible scenarios.  Each day leading up to Election Day, we’re going to explore one of the scenarios.  This post is the fourth installment of the series.)

In a karmic performance, Barack Obama loses the election with 47% of the vote.

For two weeks Gallup predicted this outcome.  For two weeks that prediction received scoffs in return from the left.  Never before in the history of the nation’s most venerable polling outfit had a presidential candidate led for so long and so strong so late in the race and still lost.  Aside from a few days when Rasmussen showed the race at its most open, Gallup sat alone out on a limb.

In the end, it wasn’t close.  A five point national victory was enough to sweep every swing state Romney’s way.  The margin was large enough–a twelve-point swing since 2008 in the Republican direction–that two of the three “reach” states (Democrats should never have disregarded the Great Lake State) voted for Romney, as did a lone elector in Maine.  The margin of victory in Nevada was enough even to overcome the margin of fraud in Clark County.  Sixteen states went to Obama.  It could have been worse.  Four of his states were within a point of going the other way.

Almost every demographic voted for Obama in smaller percentages.  Even those that still supported him in high percentages–blacks, hispanics, and youth–didn’t turn out to vote.  And because they didn’t turn out to vote, the effect on Democrats downstream was wide and deep.  Incumbents Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey went down to defeat.  The Senate ends up in Republican hands with 53 seats.  The GOP even picks up a net of a few seats in the House to bring them to 245. 

Recriminations against Obama for his underwhelming performance begin right away.  “Lazy” isn’t racist, apparently, when liberals cudgel the President with the adjective to describe how he aproached the end of this race.  For to risk being called racist is better than to admit that their ideas had . . .  They can’t even formulate the word in their heads.  Must. Not. Allow.

Final result:  Romney over Obama 52 to 47, while the Republican candidate secures 328 electoral votes.

scenario_4.jpg

See all the scenarios:

Scenario 1:  Nate Silver is right

Scenario 2:  RCP is right

Scenario 3:  Rasmussen is right

Scenario 4:  Gallup tracking poll is right

Scenario 5:  Gallup electorate poll is right

And the prediction is . . .

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4 Responses to “The scenarios: 4-Gallup tracking poll is right”

  1. Lorenz Gude Says:

    Well, I hope so, but if I hadn’t been reading too many predictions I’d think it was a dead heat with it likely to end in the courts. I checked the Gallup tracking poll and they have been not polling for two days because of Sandy making it all a bit more mysterious. The other oddity I noticed at RCP was a poll showing PA dead even and Ohio +2 Obama. In any case if all the tales of large crowds for Romney and small ones for Obama are true and the results are anything like today’s scenario then it will mean that the grip of the MSM has been broken. The pollsters will be able to blame Sandy if either candidate gets am ‘unexpected’ solid win. Looking forward to your final scenario – which I presume is your best estimate.

  2. mpthompson Says:

    Will Gallup will have their latest poll (Thurs thru Sun) out later today? It will be interesting to see if Romney holds onto a 4-6 point lead as he did up to Sandy in a poll that doesn’t include any pre-Sandy sampling. If the lead is maintained, I wonder if the divergence from all the other polls is an indication of Gallup applying more stringent likely voter tests than the other polls.

  3. Trent Telenko Says:

    Guns, God, Coal, and Oamacare are at work in Pennsylvania for Romney.

    Pres Obama will be lucky to get 37% of the white vote there.

    Too date, only the PEW poll bothered to ask about the effect of Catholic 2012 election teaching on voters.

    I have seen squat in terms of poll question about Coal, Guns, and $700 billion cut to Medicare that the “Affordable Care Act” is delivering to seniors in the swing states let alone Pennsylvania.

  4. Lorenz Gude Says:

    Well, I can’t help but noticing that Gallup is still hors de combat and that the RCP average has opened up a +.5% lead for Obama. It is the direction that primarily worries me. I think we may be seeing a 2000 type election where the electorate doesn’t really want either candidate and both are stuck on that magic 47%. Did Sandy stem the flow of independents toward Romney? Here is hoping I’m wrong. If Romney’s consistent polling lead among independents holds up on election day he should be ok. I’m in Australia so I have NO ground feel for the election and I imagine it would feel a lot different if I were actually in one of the swing states. I find it hard to imagine Republicans in those states staying home as they did in 08!

    Ed: I’m watching the polls give back some of Romney’s lead and am wondering if my theory about oversampling unlikelies is having an effect. Over the last couple weeks from when Romney led the RCP over one point, he’s slipped almost two. However, also over those last two weeks early voting has started. When a poll respondent answers that he has already voted, he is automatically in the likely voter pile. I’m seeing some polls with 40% early voters, when about 29% is more accurate from what I’m seeing in secretary of state data. Plus, when I see the Pew poll’s likely voters screen remove only 3% of their registered voters, I’m automatically suspicious of the result. Either that or it’s just wishful thinking.