(With just two days left before the election, I foresee see five possible scenarios. Each day leading up to Election Day, we’re going to explore one of the scenarios. This post is the fourth installment of the series.)
In a karmic performance, Barack Obama loses the election with 47% of the vote.
For two weeks Gallup predicted this outcome. For two weeks that prediction received scoffs in return from the left. Never before in the history of the nation’s most venerable polling outfit had a presidential candidate led for so long and so strong so late in the race and still lost. Aside from a few days when Rasmussen showed the race at its most open, Gallup sat alone out on a limb.
In the end, it wasn’t close. A five point national victory was enough to sweep every swing state Romney’s way. The margin was large enough–a twelve-point swing since 2008 in the Republican direction–that two of the three “reach” states (Democrats should never have disregarded the Great Lake State) voted for Romney, as did a lone elector in Maine. The margin of victory in Nevada was enough even to overcome the margin of fraud in Clark County. Sixteen states went to Obama. It could have been worse. Four of his states were within a point of going the other way.
Almost every demographic voted for Obama in smaller percentages. Even those that still supported him in high percentages–blacks, hispanics, and youth–didn’t turn out to vote. And because they didn’t turn out to vote, the effect on Democrats downstream was wide and deep. Incumbents Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey went down to defeat. The Senate ends up in Republican hands with 53 seats. The GOP even picks up a net of a few seats in the House to bring them to 245.
Recriminations against Obama for his underwhelming performance begin right away. “Lazy” isn’t racist, apparently, when liberals cudgel the President with the adjective to describe how he aproached the end of this race. For to risk being called racist is better than to admit that their ideas had . . . They can’t even formulate the word in their heads. Must. Not. Allow.
Final result: Romney over Obama 52 to 47, while the Republican candidate secures 328 electoral votes.
See all the scenarios:
Scenario 1: Nate Silver is right
Scenario 2: RCP is right
Scenario 3: Rasmussen is right
Scenario 4: Gallup tracking poll is right
Scenario 5: Gallup electorate poll is right
And the prediction is . . .