#6 looks like it might be coming true (sadly)

Byline: | Category: Foreign Policy, Iraq | Posted at: Tuesday, 3 February 2009

In late December I made a prediction that sadly might be coming true:

Political unrest in Kyrgyzstan will be the impetus for overt Russian involvement in the Central Asian country, and will put at risk continued American presence at its air base in Manas and the entire Afghan operation.

If this report is accurate, then we can count this as an accurate prediction.  (It is accurate.)

RIA-Novosti quotes Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev as saying that his government “has made the decision to end the term for the American base on the territory of Kyrgyzstan.”  

Let us hope it is Soviet Russian propaganda and a complete falsehood.  (You do know that Pravda is the Russian word for “truth,” don’t you?) 

One month into 2009 and already we can make some assessments of my other 2009 predictions. 

It looks like #2 is coming true: Israel and Hamas have agreed on a cease fire of some sort.  For now.

#7 is well on its way to coming true too:  “President Obama will rename the “Global War on Terrorism” to something else, but nothing else (Guantanamo, Patriot Act, etc.) will significantly change.”  So far we know that Gitmo isn’t going to change within a year.  No word on any changes to the Patriot Act.  Nor do I expect to hear of any.

One prediction I got only half right.  I said that Roland Burris would be a Senator (YES) and Rod Blagojevich would still be a governor (NO) at the end of the year.  I figured that the Illinois legislature never wanted Blago bringing witnesses into the chamber and implicating most the elected population of Chicago.  Little did I know that the law in the Land of Lincoln is so screwed up that the accused isn’t even allowed to present witnesses on his behalf, thus removing the state senate’s impeachment inhibitor. 

Check out the rest of the predictions here.

(ht: GR)

UPDATE:

More here.

ALSO:

The Taliban destroyed a major Pakistani bridge on the main supply route used to supply NATO forces in Afghanistan.  Ten trucks stopped by the downed bridge were then torched yesterday by assailants. 

I’ve said all along that logistics, not Iraq, was the factor that limited the size of American involvement in Afghanistan.  If our forces lose their Northern aerial supply route and their main ground supply route, we could lose the ability to sustain even the troops currently in Afghanistan, much less another 30,000.

Afghanistan and Iraq are two vastly different countries.  Iraq is actually not unlike Eastern Europe, in the sense that it too suffered four decades of incompetent dictatorship, which itself followed years of devastating warfare.  However, not too long ago Iraq was a prosperous and modern civilization (for the region).  Afghanistan has never been prosperous, modern, or for that matter, even a country in the sense that we think of country.  Just as in Eastern Europe, Iraq is a country that is being re-born.  In Afghanistan it is being born for the first time.  Our expectations there must be so much less than even what we hope to achieve in Iraq.

Share this post:

2 Responses to “#6 looks like it might be coming true (sadly)”

  1. Instapundit » Blog Archive » HOPE AND CHANGE: U.S. to Get the Boot from Central Asia Base? “Stunning news from Moscow: Russian … Says:

    [...] MORE: From Bob Krumm, an “I told you so.” [...]

  2. HopeyChange #3: Mitt for Health Czar? « Over-the-Hill Oracles Says:

    [...] this scenario is not without prior predictions [...]