President-elect Barack Obama

Byline: | Category: 2008 Presidential Election | Posted at: Tuesday, 4 November 2008

John McCain has lost Ohio.  I’ve been watching countywide returns all evening there.  While only a few counties have turned colors, no county that I’m watching has increased its margin for McCain over Bush’s 2004 totals.  In other words: 

President-elect Barack Obama.

I hope that he governs like Bill Clinton–a center-left President who knew that he was leading a center-right country, and not like Nancy Pelosi would like him to lead.

As the numbers are crunched there will be a tendency to finger-point within the GOP. Here are some things not to point fingers at:

John McCain as the nominee. He’s running 20 points ahead of President Bush’s approval rating. Tell me what possible candidate could have beat that. No, not even the guy I supported in the primaries.

Sarah Palin as the veep nominee. Was there anyone else who could have united the GOP base so strongly behind McCain? No. Not Romney. Not Huckabee. (And don’t even start, Paulbots.)

Pennsylvania/Ohio as the crux of the fight. You can hold what you need (OH) and attempt to gain what you want (PA), or you can try and hold OH, VA, IA, CO, NM and NV. Take your pick: two adjacent states in the same time zone, or hold OH, and another 3 out of the remaining 5 states in four different time zones. Geographically, that’s hard to do when you’re being outspent more than 6:1.

There is a certain sense of irony that one-half of McCain-Feingold is going to fall in 2008, in part, because of McCain-Feingold. Sadly, what this means for four years from now is that the cost of the post-convention presidential election will go from 3/4 billion dollars in 2008 to conservatively, $3 billion a short four years from now. It’s only going to get more expensive. Much more expensive.

Anyway, here is my message to national Republicans that I promised to highlight:

If Barack Obama wins

PS. While Congressional Republicans appear to have been trounced nationally two elections in a row, the Tennessee GOP has again beat the odds. Republicans here are poised to keep the State Senate that it gained for the first time since Reconstruction two years ago–perhaps even by a larger margin, and might even pick up the State House that it hasn’t held in decades. Never since there has been a Republican Party has the GOP held both state houses in Tennessee.

Whatever the GOP is doing here it might want to replicate. (Hint, it hired a blogger to be its PR head.)

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2 Responses to “President-elect Barack Obama”

  1. rightwingprof Says:

    I worked the poll here in this district from 6-10 (voting began at 7, and polls close at 7). This is a fairly small, conservative voting district, with a GOP majority. Central PA in the mountains, bears in the yard, that sort of place. It was amazing. At 6, there were people waiting outside the church. When we opened the doors at 7, the line went all the way around the church and down the street.

    At 10, I cast the 396th vote. That’s a huge turnout for this district, a huge GOP turnout. There was no sign of any more “youth” voters than usual. There were some volunteers for candidates standing outside when I left, and both the two Dems and two Republicans agreed that from the reactions of the voters to them as they went to vote, most were voting GOP.

    If there is a massive GOP turnout all over the state, McCain has a very good shot at carrying Pennsylvania. I’m seeing similar reports from Indiana, Virginia and Florida.

    Also note: The polls assume a huge Democrat turnout and a depressed GOP turnout. That’s not what’s happening here. I suspected as much. That’s how we won in 2004 — huge turnout. I think we’re going to see a huge GOP turnout in all the battleground states. We may also see a huge Dem turnout. That will make the race close; it won’t seal it for Obama. Not, that is, unless the Dems get a bigger turnout.

    Don’t look for results from Pennsylvania until late. We’re expecting many polls to still be voting at least until 11. “The polls close at 7” only means the doors close. Everybody inside still gets to vote. In this district, it will take about 90 minutes to get everybody inside through. In larger voting districts, it will take even longer. That’s going to make “early reports” based on exit polls even more problematic than they were in 2004. Let’s hope the media learned their lesson about that.

    I’m going back to work from 4-6. Turnout did slack off from the first hour, but it’s much heavier than any other election I’ve seen here, and people who have been working elections for years say it’s bigger than even what they saw in 2004.

  2. Arkady Says:

    I just will not be able to deal with cheering Kenyans, Hamas, Iranians and Venzuelans. CNN will be rolling those celebrations like a ticker parade. I can’t stand the idea of people like Wright, Farrakhan, etc celebrating knowing that their messiah took over.

    Worst case scenario and it will be hard to accept it. Very hard.