My prediction

Byline: | Category: 2008 Presidential Election | Posted at: Monday, 3 November 2008

Here is my prediction. Wednesday morning you can grade me on how well I did.

Arizona: Don’t believe the hype. John McCain is in no danger of doing an Al Gore and losing his home state. McCain by ten.

Colorado: Bush won here by almost five. Barack Obama thinks that, along with Iowa, the Rocky Mountain State is his best chance for a pickup. The youth vote in Boulder and Denver will be up this year. So too will be the military vote in Colorado Springs and the rancher/farmer/landowner vote everywhere else. Net effect: some change in the Democratic direction, but not enough to swing the state. McCain by two.

Florida: McCain will do better with Jewish and older voters than did Bush four years ago when he won the state 52-47. They turn out to vote. The youth vote that Obama depends on will vote just like it always has in the Sunshine State: not very much. McCain by four.

Georgia, North Carolina, and the rest of the Deep South: Black turnout for Obama will be huge. It won’t be enough. Not even close. McCain will win the Tarheel State by eight points. The rest of the states between South Carolina and Louisiana will select him by ten points plus.

Indiana: In spite even of the fact that more people will vote in Lake County than live there, this is still a reliably red state. Bush won the Hoosier State by 21 points. However, Tuesday afternoon’s leaked exit polls will indicate that in Indiana Obama is leading McCain. Indiana’s polls are among the first in the nation to close. MSNBC will call the state for Obama soon after the polls close. They want to call it early in order to depress turnout in places like Colorado where polls will remain open three hours longer. Objectivity be damned. The other networks will be more cautious. For good reason; Obama starts out with a 13-point lead in exit polling simply because Republicans are less likely to answer them. When the actual returns come in from places other than Gary and Bloomington, they will reveal a race that wasn’t even close. McCain by double digits. MSNBC will be the butt of jokes on Leno and SNL after having called Indiana so wrong.

Iowa: The Hawkeye State is closer than the polls would make you think-why else would Barack Obama be there on the final weekend? If Iowa had a normal primary system, McCain would win. But it doesn’t. There is something even more important than the presidency at stake: the Iowa Caucuses are on trial in 2008. In a contested race they haven’t successfully selected a Democratic president since 1976. (And they’ve never selected a successful Democratic president.) If Obama loses this year Iowans know that the Hawkeye Cauci could go bye-bye (and with them will go ethanol subsidies). This is one of only two formerly red states he swings in his direction. Obama by five.

Missouri: Just like the last couple times, a Clinton appointee will order polling places to stay open until midnight, but only in Jackson County and St. Louis City. A federal judge will shut the polls down because the first judge wouldn’t keep polls open in the more Republican St. Louis County, which similarly experienced long lines and delays. The “Show me” state won’t like what Obama has shown them. McCain will clear the 50% hurdle.

Montana and North Dakota: These are not tossup states. How do I know? Look at the money being spent there. If they were really as close as the public polls say they are Barack Obama would be there. What these northern Great Plains states are instead is evidence that the public polls are broken this year. Bush won both states by double digits. So too will McCain.

Nevada: Usually reliably Republican, however the biggest boom town in the country, Las Vegas, is now in its biggest bust. Bush won 50.5% to 47.9% four years ago. Clark County will be ready to manufacture the votes necessary to secure an Obama victory. It won’t be necessary. Obama will outperform Kerry’s totals and win the Silver State by three points.

New Hampshire: John Kerry won here by a margin of 1.3%. But Kerry was from Massachusetts whose Boston media market blankets the southern third of the Granite State. Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties, the state’s two largest, went for Bush by just a few points four years ago. However, without a neighbor on the ticket, McCain’s margin in both of the state’s southern counties will be larger. Besides, if there is one word that describes the citizens of New England’s iconoclast state, it is “cantankerous” (but in a lovable way). McCain is cantankerous too. He always exceeds expectations in New Hampshire. Obama always underperforms there. And New Hampshire always surprises. Granite Staters love to lie to pollsters—it’s their way of telling the media what they think of them, and it announces that New Hampshirites know a little bit more about this whole presidential selection thing than most people–especially those upstart Iowans.  McCain by two. When that is announced you will hear screams from off the set during CBS’ broadcast. Keith Olbermann will openly cry. All eyes—the dry ones at least—will then shift to Colorado and Pennsylvania, both of which Obama will need to win in order to prevail.  For the first time Tuesday evening the tone of the news coverage will shift to, “Can Obama pull it out?”

New Mexico: With its Democratic governor, New Mexico is even more blue than it was four years ago when Kerry lost here by only 6,000 votes, the smallest margin of any state in nation. Obama wins by five. But the real loser of the evening is Bill Richardson, who even though he delivered his state, committed the unpardonable crime of crossing the Clintons. Scandal will find him.

Ohio: Like Missouri, the Buckeye State almost always goes with the winner. It will again this time. Turnout in Butler, Clermont, and Warren Counties will overwhelm new registrations in the state’s urban areas—an unexpectedly high number of whom don’t show up to vote because ACORN simply made up names in Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Montgomery Counties. Every county east of Cincinnati and South of I-70 except for Athens goes for McCain–many by a margin of three or four to one.  Keep your eyes on Mahoning County. Bush got only 37% there four years ago. If McCain clears that mark by five points or more it’s a signal that Ohioan Joe Wurzelbacher helped McCain make inroads with labor voters nationwide. That level of support in Youngstown indicates a McCain win in nearby Pennsylvania too. McCain takes Ohio by 50,000 votes. Clinton supporter Governor Ted Strickland is caught smiling during a phone call with Bill when he didn’t know he was on camera. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner’s head explodes because she realizes that without Obama in office to shield her, a federal investigation of ACORN is going to incriminate her.

Pennsylvania: In a year that is slightly more Democratic than 2004 when Pennsylvania went blue 50.9% to 48.4%, the outcome in the Keystone State should not be in doubt. It’s in doubt this year because Obama and his allies have done everything they can to lose this state. Obama will lose rural and small town Pennsylvania by huge margins. He will win Pittsburgh, and especially Philly, by large margins. Erie will go for Obama by the slimmest of margins—if at all—further indicating how poorly Obama performed with white middle class Rust Belt voters. Pennsylvania won’t be called until late. It won’t be decided until the courts have spoken. That’s not good news for Republicans if the state’s 21 electoral votes make the difference. (The Philadelphia machine plays dirty.) At daybreak the state is still a tossup with less than 10,000 votes separating the candidates. But the real winner is Governor Ed Rendell who spends every day from now until January 20th yelling “I told you so,”—first because he said that Democrats should have picked Hillary, and second because he warned Obama that he wasn’t spending enough time in his state. He was right both times.

Virginia: Lots of newly registered voters helps Obama, right? Not exactly. A large number of them are newly registered to vote in red counties. A lot of them are military voters in Tidewater and DC, who this year registered to vote in VA instead of their home states. They prefer McCain 3:1. Bush won the Commonwealth 53-45 in 2004. The very popular former governor Mark Warner, in an effort to confuse the voters that he is the same Warner as the retiring Republican one whose seat he seeks, is not identifying himself as a Democrat in his advertising this year. That should be a clue. McCain by five.

Wisconsin: What? Wisconsin a tossup state? Yes. John Kerry won by only 10,000 votes. The Badger State will end up being much closer than anyone suspects. Madison’s youth vote won’t turn out in expected numbers. Obama will underperform expectations in Milwaukee and Green Bay. Obama will pull it out, but when most of the networks report when its polls close that Wisconsin is too close to call, Obama’s supporters will feel like they’ve been slapped in the face by a cold wet musky (Wisconsin’s state fish). It will be the first indication to them that the exit polls they’ve been celebrating since midday are off. Way off. Obama by only three.

Nationwide: Going in to election day, Obama will be leading 47% to 44% with 7% undecided. McCain wins the undecided almost 5:2. Increased support from black voters in the three Ds (DC, Detroit, and the Deep South) along with gains in other reliably red states runs up Obama’s popular vote totals, but adds nothing to the electoral bottom line. The only states he turns in his favor are two very white ones (Iowa 2% black and Nevada 6% black), providing evidence against the charge of racism. But facts don’t get in the way of the story line that racism decided the race.

Final popular vote tally: Obama 49.2%, McCain 48.8%, Other 2%.

Electoral votes: Obama 244, McCain 273, Pennsylvania’s 21 TBD.

Wednesday the 5th won’t be pretty.

UPDATE:

VoxDay offers his projection.  I’ve not started with the RCP average in any of these states for reasons I’ll make clear later.  But Vox did and came up with a similar result.

Jim Geraghty picks Obama to take NH, CO, and VA, while McCain takes NV. 

Put your projections in the comments below.

ALSO:

Thanks for visiting, Cornerites.  Please take a look around.

MORE:

Thanks for all the projections–even those that argue a different outcome.  However, I am astounded at some of the comments.  Countless times has an Obama supporter jumped straight to the conclusion that I and others who support McCain are by definition racist for our opposition to Obama.  That attitude from Obama’s supporters is a large part of the reason why this race is much closer than it should be. 

EVEN MORE:

Apparently I’m getting a lot of traffic from Yahoo.  I hope that you’ll stay to look around.  But if you’re one of the minority of visitors who feels compelled to use obscene language–supposedly in an effort to sway undecideds, or who accuse Americans who simply have a different view from you of racism, you might want to consider this.

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186 Responses to “My prediction”

  1. Preparándose para el final « Sarah Palin en Español Says:

    […] Bob Krumm, bloguista conservador: McCain – Palin 273 y Obama – Biden 244, con los 21 votos electorales de Pennsylvania sin asignar (aún así ganaría McCain). […]

  2. Robert Vaughn Says:

    I must admit that this has been one of the most interesting campaigns that I have ever witnessed. For so many years the voter turn out has been marginal at best. Both candidates have aroused the American people to get them out to vote and that should be a good thing. Personally I will be voting for Obama, Mc Cain really never has said what exactly he will do to fix the economy…other than to tax my insurance premiums.

  3. waitandsee Says:

    I really don’t understand all these people that are so proud of the turn out that put Bush back in office. If you really want to think about who to vote for you might as well look at the potential vice presidents. Mccain is going to have a blow out the first time congress tells him no, so that will but Palin in charge. She may be good for comedy skits on T.V. but whose going to pull her strings and make her lips move when Mccain’s gone? Then we have Obama. No matter how far this country has gone it still has not gone far enough. I’m sure it will become some sick internet game to see who can off him first. So that would put Biden in. So our choices really are only Palin and Biden.

  4. ANNA Says:

    McCain wins and America continues to be sold piece by piece. Palin are you joking? So go ahead and keep your heads in the sand…the Arabs own that too!

    The Arabs own 20 % of Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. was sold to Borse Dubai. Bushes response: “I’m comfortable with the process to go forward”

    Dubai bought in 2006

    Helmsley Building, New York ($705)

    Civica Office Commons, Bellevue, Wash. ($141)

    The Lingerie Building, New York ($94)

    Hackensack University Medical Plaza, Hackensack, N.J. ($88)

    The Park at Sawgrass Mills, Sunrise, Fla. ($74)

    July 2008
    The Abu Dhabi Council bought a 75% stake in the tower for $800 million

    The council is to acquire a 75% stake in the building from Germany’s TMW Immobilien AG.

    Owns a stake in the Citibank Group

    The agreement would follow last month’s deal in which a group led by Boston Properties Inc would buy the GM Building and three others from Macklowe Properties for $3.45 billion. The Post said investors in that deal included the wealth funds of Kuwait and Qatar.

    In December 2007, Dubai World, an investment arm of the ••Dubai government, purchased 5 million shares of MGM Mirage, increasing its share of the company to 6.5 percent.

    In November 2007, Emirates Airlines detailed plans to ••buy 12 Boeing 777s worth approximately $3.2 billion. This order, along with previous sales, means that Boeing will, on average, deliver one airplane a month to Emirates Airlines for at least the next four years.

    In November 2007, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority ••announced a critical $7.5 billion dollar capital infusion into Citigroup. This will result in a 4.9 percent share in Citigroup, which had recently faced financial difficulties associated with subprime mortgage problems.

    In November 2007, Jafza International of Dubai ••announced its intention to establish a new warehouse and transportation hub in Orangeburg, South Carolina. The “greenfield” facility reportedly would involve a $600 million dollar investment in a location with high unemployment and create as many as 5,000 new jobs.

    In October 2007, Cold Stone Creamery of Scottsdale ••Arizona, in partnership with the Apparel Group of the UAE, made public its plans to open a retail outlet in Dubai’s Festival City. This was followed in quick succession by two further premium ice cream outlets in December 2007.

    In March 2007, Halliburton, a major player in the oil ••services sector, announced plans to move its corporate headquarters from Houston to Dubai. The move reflects the new importance of the UAE as an international center of oil-related business deals and is a vote of confidence for the business climate in Dubai.

    These are just to name a few…do your homework because as it stand now, you failed.

  5. zeno Says:

    As a Canadian, I would like to extend my congratultations to all the participants in this general erection who are making it not necessarily the “most important election ever” but the most entertaining.

    We just had a federal election and it was a yawner.

  6. Scope G. Says:

    As an observer , all I can say is that “people elect the leaders they deserve” and Americans voted Bush 2004 , and you saw it yourselves what happened!!! . Frankly , I have always been of the impression that Americans deserved better . Please dont undercut yourselves this time by going the McCain way . You deserve better……….unless you are happy with the current economic status, the wars , the lies and all the lovely stuff that the Republican adminstration put on offer.

  7. don Says:

    I don’t care if the next president is black, white, red, yellow or green – but i do care if the next president wants to “Spread the wealth around” because i have a feeling that some of the wealth he wants to spread is going to be mine. For a great many years i have seen people who get on welfare and just stay the rest of their lives – i have seen third and fourth generations who live pretty high on the hog with government money while my taxes just keep going up. Obama wants to “Take care of the little guy” but wants to use money from the people who go out and work for a living, That stuff about only taxing people who make more than $250,000 is a joke – all it would do is penalize the ones who are going out and doing something rather than sit on the porch and collect the welfare check. That is what i don’t like about Obama.

  8. LIla Says:

    Forever I walk among the ignorant!
    That was for you Robert….

    I consider Obama the lessor of two evils. I choose inexperience over ignorance. Which is what we will have with Palin in office. McCains health should weigh heavier on the minds of voters.

  9. William Says:

    Delusional. It won’t be close, I guarantee it.

  10. Porter Says:

    Point of order:

    In Wisconsin, it’s a Muskellunge or “Muskie” and you better use a steel rod and 100 pound test, with a steel leader for those teeth.

    And I personally don’t think they taste very good. Walleye, thank you.

    Ed: But they look good on a wall with all those teeth. And definitely Walleye over Muskie. Just had some myself a couple weekends ago. Even down here in TN we have them in some of our deeper lakes. But nothing like Lake Erie.

  11. SusieQ Says:

    All I can say is heads up for McCain ! I love your outlook !
    GO MCCAIN. I’m a Maverick, you’re a Maverick, wouldn’t you like to be a Maverick too !
    GO McCain ! VOTE McCAIN ON TUESDAY !
    America Loves you John and Sarah !
    YOU GO !!

    By the way LILA. McCAINS HEALTH IS BETTER THAN YOU EVER COULD WISH FOR YOURS TO BE.
    He is superman. Look at what he did today.
    8 STATES ! LOOKS DAMN GOOD TO ME. He is holding up better that I could ever.

    MAC IS BACK !
    He never left.
    FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT ! STAND UP AND FIGHT FOR AMERICA ! YOU TELL EM JOHN. !

  12. Steve Says:

    I don’t think you’re racist, at least I sure hope not in this day and age, but I do think you are ignorant. A new voice and new plan is needed. More of the same will not help us at this critical time.

  13. Daily Pundit » Not A Happy Outcome, Necessarily Says:

    […] BobKrumm.com » My prediction […]

  14. Tennesseefree.com » Karl Rove predicts Obama landslide, Bushie bloggers delusional - predict McCain win Says:

    […] Bob Krum: McCain 273 – 244 […]

  15. GW Says:

    i hope you are right about your predictions. my hubby says the same thing, but i am less certain. if obama wants to accuse americans of “clinging to their guns and religion” when things get hard, he may be nearer the truth than the statement reflects. it may be all we have left, and he’s going to take that from us, too.

    you can call me a racist for early voting for mc cain because i believe in patriotism and the necessity of an elite military force that provides us the peace that is sometimes found only at the end of war, and because i believe in the american dream and the benefits of free enterprise and entrepreneurship, and because i believe in liberty and free will: a fundamentally basic concept that drives men (and women) to excel, persevere, and accomplish.

    if my basic moral belief of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness makes me a racist, then so be it because i’m not going to cast a vote that will volunteer these rights to be taken from me.

    i’ll suffer another four years of bush rather than put 60% of the House and Senate vote in the hands of the liberal democrats. if bush accomplished anything at all, he kept the liberals from creating a “democratic socialistic” society by exercising one of two presidential powers–he vetoed and vetoed and vetoed. and now, the threat is revisited.

    and yes, if obama wins, the riots will begin.
    and if mc cain wins, the riots will begin.

  16. Charlie (Colorado) Says:

    I think it’ll end up a little stronger for McCain, by Iowa. I live in Colorado (ergo the cognomen) and I think the PPP folks aren’t calculating in the stubborn old cowboy effect: won’t tell you how they’re gonna damned well vote. I also know that the Democrats have announced that Obama has it nailed down, and McCain and the RNC are pulling out, at least 3 or 4 times, but Palin and McCain keep coming through. It’s *way* closer than that PPP figure. Their notion that Palin has hurt McCain here … I can’t see it. I want to see their methodology.

    In any case, I think it’s about 303-310 EV McCain.

  17. Charlie (Colorado) Says:

    I don’t think you’re racist, at least I sure hope not in this day and age, but I do think you are ignorant. A new voice and new plan is needed. More of the same will not help us at this critical time.

    Uh, Steve, what you want to be true doesn’t actually apply here: he’s asking for a polling prediction.

    I think it would be nice to have a pony, but that doesn’t change the poll either.

  18. Election Predictions : Stop The ACLU Says:

    […] is pessimistic: Obama 318, Maverick 220 Ed Morrissey is optimistic: McCain 273, Obama 265! Bob Krumm is optimistic: Obama 244, McCain 273 Karl Rove is pessimistic: Obama 338, McCain 200. Vox Day is optimistic, […]

  19. Dave Says:

    Americans are not fools. They will not vote “Wright Lite” into office.

  20. Mary Says:

    Please God, you’re right.

  21. soonerdaddy Says:

    If only a spelling test were given prior to being allowed to vote…or post.

  22. physics geek Says:

    Here’s my prediction:

    Obama: 272 ev
    McCain: 266 ev

    McCain holds serve in NC, VA, Fl and NV, while picking up PA. He loses OH due to the malfeasance of Brunner, which ends up costing him the election due to the loss of CO and NM from 2004.

  23. General Election Results: McCain Wins, Obama Loses (Live-Blogging) » Right Pundits Says:

    […] if you are right, congratulations on clairvoyance and a lofty promotion to the esteemed ranks of pundit prognosticator. You deserve […]

  24. Bubba Says:

    *** “MSNBC will call the state for Obama soon after the polls close. They want to call it early in order to depress turnout in places like Colorado where polls will remain open three hours longer.” ***

    Who the hell will they be depressing? I don’t know too many conservative or even swing voters who watch MSNBC. The bigger danger is the one we’ve seen all along this election season: big media is going all out to elect Obama. They’ll ALL call a traditional red state for Obama to depress turn out. They’ve probably already agreed on which state that is – maybe Virginia.

    I think there’s a decent chance of an electoral tie, too.

  25. Rex Little Says:

    he kept the liberals from creating a “democratic socialistic” society by exercising one of two presidential powers–he vetoed and vetoed and vetoed

    Say what?! Bush served his entire first term, and more than a year of his second, without vetoing a single bill. To date, he has vetoed 12. That’s fewer than any President since Warren Harding, and fewer than any full-term President since Lincoln. (Source: Wikipedia)

  26. Wes Says:

    Hey Bob,
    interesting stuff…I did my own calculations and came up with similar results:
    http://poorrichardsnews.com/2008/11/wess-official-election-prediction.html

    Check it out if you have time.

  27. Arkady Says:

    I am impressed with the level of detail and analysis here. I have spent months researching and writing about this election and I cannot even come close to that kind of determination.

    I really hope you are wrong about PA, McCain needs to win more convincingly to get away from chaos. Although I too am seeing chaos down the road.

    http://rkdpolitics.blogspot.com/

  28. TJ Says:

    I more or less agree with you on all the states, including that PA is questionable and will be very close. Its electoral votes have had a tendency of going barely Democrat in all but the most impressive Republican landslides. Nevertheless, there have been more the a few Democrat faux pas there recently (e.g. “bitter”, “cling to guns and religion”, “bankrupt coal”, etc.) That spells definite potential for a McCain upset.

    Ohio will go to McCain, but the 200,000 fraudulent votes by left-wing ghosts and dead pets will reduce McCain’s otherwise impressive victory margin there. I am not so sure that McCain will win NH – I think it is tough to predict either way. I also think that it is to tough to predict how Nevada will go – McCain may win after all.

    A final point that merits some discussion:

    MAINE!

    McCain really might win one electoral vote there. Isn’t it plausible for McCain to win the more conservative district? That would put him at 270 electoral votes to win even if he loses NH, NV, and PA.

  29. John Says:

    I filled one in for John & Sarah today.
    Ohio is full of hard working Americans. We don’t have the time or the patience to break in a newbie. We also have coal and oil that we are very proud to produce.

    Nobama you forgot what Ohio and America are made of…. We are not stupid.

  30. Janine Says:

    Wake up and smell the coffee. Even Karl Rove is predicting Obama by a landslide.

  31. Malcolm Says:

    Janine: No Conservative would ever start a phrase with “Even Karl Rove…”, so it’s evident where your sympathies lie.

    That appeal to Rove as an authority was pretty feeble, but I suppose that’s the best you can muster. Pity that you’re incapable of arguing the facts. (sigh)

  32. Covey Says:

    I pray you are correct. I think it is going to be an interesting run!!!

  33. Brutus Says:

    Wow!! Were you ever wrong! Wishful thinking I guess.

  34. Jen Says:

    How do you explain how wrong you were? When I read your prediction, I thought “no way”, but I had no idea how pathetic and wrong your analysis was. How do you explain that?

  35. Yorick Says:

    LOL! The most hysterical case of fantastical, “think-happy-thoughts” thinking eh-var!!

  36. SmilingJ Says:

    I read this yesterday and it motivated me to call more people to get out and vote. Not for anyone in particular, but just to vote. So I say I will grade you now and not wait for Wed morning. Ohio, PA, FL, CO, VA to name a few were all taken by Pres-Elect Obama, despite your projections. I will give you a D. At least you made the effort.