My prediction

Byline: | Category: 2008 Presidential Election | Posted at: Monday, 3 November 2008

Here is my prediction. Wednesday morning you can grade me on how well I did.

Arizona: Don’t believe the hype. John McCain is in no danger of doing an Al Gore and losing his home state. McCain by ten.

Colorado: Bush won here by almost five. Barack Obama thinks that, along with Iowa, the Rocky Mountain State is his best chance for a pickup. The youth vote in Boulder and Denver will be up this year. So too will be the military vote in Colorado Springs and the rancher/farmer/landowner vote everywhere else. Net effect: some change in the Democratic direction, but not enough to swing the state. McCain by two.

Florida: McCain will do better with Jewish and older voters than did Bush four years ago when he won the state 52-47. They turn out to vote. The youth vote that Obama depends on will vote just like it always has in the Sunshine State: not very much. McCain by four.

Georgia, North Carolina, and the rest of the Deep South: Black turnout for Obama will be huge. It won’t be enough. Not even close. McCain will win the Tarheel State by eight points. The rest of the states between South Carolina and Louisiana will select him by ten points plus.

Indiana: In spite even of the fact that more people will vote in Lake County than live there, this is still a reliably red state. Bush won the Hoosier State by 21 points. However, Tuesday afternoon’s leaked exit polls will indicate that in Indiana Obama is leading McCain. Indiana’s polls are among the first in the nation to close. MSNBC will call the state for Obama soon after the polls close. They want to call it early in order to depress turnout in places like Colorado where polls will remain open three hours longer. Objectivity be damned. The other networks will be more cautious. For good reason; Obama starts out with a 13-point lead in exit polling simply because Republicans are less likely to answer them. When the actual returns come in from places other than Gary and Bloomington, they will reveal a race that wasn’t even close. McCain by double digits. MSNBC will be the butt of jokes on Leno and SNL after having called Indiana so wrong.

Iowa: The Hawkeye State is closer than the polls would make you think-why else would Barack Obama be there on the final weekend? If Iowa had a normal primary system, McCain would win. But it doesn’t. There is something even more important than the presidency at stake: the Iowa Caucuses are on trial in 2008. In a contested race they haven’t successfully selected a Democratic president since 1976. (And they’ve never selected a successful Democratic president.) If Obama loses this year Iowans know that the Hawkeye Cauci could go bye-bye (and with them will go ethanol subsidies). This is one of only two formerly red states he swings in his direction. Obama by five.

Missouri: Just like the last couple times, a Clinton appointee will order polling places to stay open until midnight, but only in Jackson County and St. Louis City. A federal judge will shut the polls down because the first judge wouldn’t keep polls open in the more Republican St. Louis County, which similarly experienced long lines and delays. The “Show me” state won’t like what Obama has shown them. McCain will clear the 50% hurdle.

Montana and North Dakota: These are not tossup states. How do I know? Look at the money being spent there. If they were really as close as the public polls say they are Barack Obama would be there. What these northern Great Plains states are instead is evidence that the public polls are broken this year. Bush won both states by double digits. So too will McCain.

Nevada: Usually reliably Republican, however the biggest boom town in the country, Las Vegas, is now in its biggest bust. Bush won 50.5% to 47.9% four years ago. Clark County will be ready to manufacture the votes necessary to secure an Obama victory. It won’t be necessary. Obama will outperform Kerry’s totals and win the Silver State by three points.

New Hampshire: John Kerry won here by a margin of 1.3%. But Kerry was from Massachusetts whose Boston media market blankets the southern third of the Granite State. Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties, the state’s two largest, went for Bush by just a few points four years ago. However, without a neighbor on the ticket, McCain’s margin in both of the state’s southern counties will be larger. Besides, if there is one word that describes the citizens of New England’s iconoclast state, it is “cantankerous” (but in a lovable way). McCain is cantankerous too. He always exceeds expectations in New Hampshire. Obama always underperforms there. And New Hampshire always surprises. Granite Staters love to lie to pollsters—it’s their way of telling the media what they think of them, and it announces that New Hampshirites know a little bit more about this whole presidential selection thing than most people–especially those upstart Iowans.  McCain by two. When that is announced you will hear screams from off the set during CBS’ broadcast. Keith Olbermann will openly cry. All eyes—the dry ones at least—will then shift to Colorado and Pennsylvania, both of which Obama will need to win in order to prevail.  For the first time Tuesday evening the tone of the news coverage will shift to, “Can Obama pull it out?”

New Mexico: With its Democratic governor, New Mexico is even more blue than it was four years ago when Kerry lost here by only 6,000 votes, the smallest margin of any state in nation. Obama wins by five. But the real loser of the evening is Bill Richardson, who even though he delivered his state, committed the unpardonable crime of crossing the Clintons. Scandal will find him.

Ohio: Like Missouri, the Buckeye State almost always goes with the winner. It will again this time. Turnout in Butler, Clermont, and Warren Counties will overwhelm new registrations in the state’s urban areas—an unexpectedly high number of whom don’t show up to vote because ACORN simply made up names in Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Montgomery Counties. Every county east of Cincinnati and South of I-70 except for Athens goes for McCain–many by a margin of three or four to one.  Keep your eyes on Mahoning County. Bush got only 37% there four years ago. If McCain clears that mark by five points or more it’s a signal that Ohioan Joe Wurzelbacher helped McCain make inroads with labor voters nationwide. That level of support in Youngstown indicates a McCain win in nearby Pennsylvania too. McCain takes Ohio by 50,000 votes. Clinton supporter Governor Ted Strickland is caught smiling during a phone call with Bill when he didn’t know he was on camera. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner’s head explodes because she realizes that without Obama in office to shield her, a federal investigation of ACORN is going to incriminate her.

Pennsylvania: In a year that is slightly more Democratic than 2004 when Pennsylvania went blue 50.9% to 48.4%, the outcome in the Keystone State should not be in doubt. It’s in doubt this year because Obama and his allies have done everything they can to lose this state. Obama will lose rural and small town Pennsylvania by huge margins. He will win Pittsburgh, and especially Philly, by large margins. Erie will go for Obama by the slimmest of margins—if at all—further indicating how poorly Obama performed with white middle class Rust Belt voters. Pennsylvania won’t be called until late. It won’t be decided until the courts have spoken. That’s not good news for Republicans if the state’s 21 electoral votes make the difference. (The Philadelphia machine plays dirty.) At daybreak the state is still a tossup with less than 10,000 votes separating the candidates. But the real winner is Governor Ed Rendell who spends every day from now until January 20th yelling “I told you so,”—first because he said that Democrats should have picked Hillary, and second because he warned Obama that he wasn’t spending enough time in his state. He was right both times.

Virginia: Lots of newly registered voters helps Obama, right? Not exactly. A large number of them are newly registered to vote in red counties. A lot of them are military voters in Tidewater and DC, who this year registered to vote in VA instead of their home states. They prefer McCain 3:1. Bush won the Commonwealth 53-45 in 2004. The very popular former governor Mark Warner, in an effort to confuse the voters that he is the same Warner as the retiring Republican one whose seat he seeks, is not identifying himself as a Democrat in his advertising this year. That should be a clue. McCain by five.

Wisconsin: What? Wisconsin a tossup state? Yes. John Kerry won by only 10,000 votes. The Badger State will end up being much closer than anyone suspects. Madison’s youth vote won’t turn out in expected numbers. Obama will underperform expectations in Milwaukee and Green Bay. Obama will pull it out, but when most of the networks report when its polls close that Wisconsin is too close to call, Obama’s supporters will feel like they’ve been slapped in the face by a cold wet musky (Wisconsin’s state fish). It will be the first indication to them that the exit polls they’ve been celebrating since midday are off. Way off. Obama by only three.

Nationwide: Going in to election day, Obama will be leading 47% to 44% with 7% undecided. McCain wins the undecided almost 5:2. Increased support from black voters in the three Ds (DC, Detroit, and the Deep South) along with gains in other reliably red states runs up Obama’s popular vote totals, but adds nothing to the electoral bottom line. The only states he turns in his favor are two very white ones (Iowa 2% black and Nevada 6% black), providing evidence against the charge of racism. But facts don’t get in the way of the story line that racism decided the race.

Final popular vote tally: Obama 49.2%, McCain 48.8%, Other 2%.

Electoral votes: Obama 244, McCain 273, Pennsylvania’s 21 TBD.

Wednesday the 5th won’t be pretty.


VoxDay offers his projection.  I’ve not started with the RCP average in any of these states for reasons I’ll make clear later.  But Vox did and came up with a similar result.

Jim Geraghty picks Obama to take NH, CO, and VA, while McCain takes NV. 

Put your projections in the comments below.


Thanks for visiting, Cornerites.  Please take a look around.


Thanks for all the projections–even those that argue a different outcome.  However, I am astounded at some of the comments.  Countless times has an Obama supporter jumped straight to the conclusion that I and others who support McCain are by definition racist for our opposition to Obama.  That attitude from Obama’s supporters is a large part of the reason why this race is much closer than it should be. 


Apparently I’m getting a lot of traffic from Yahoo.  I hope that you’ll stay to look around.  But if you’re one of the minority of visitors who feels compelled to use obscene language–supposedly in an effort to sway undecideds, or who accuse Americans who simply have a different view from you of racism, you might want to consider this.

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186 Responses to “My prediction”

  1. Dan Says:

    Err…Bush won NM by 7,000 in 2004. He narrowly lost it to Gore in 2000

  2. Roger Abramson Says:

    Bob –

    I do so much hope you’re right. I think you’re wrong( but oh Lord do I hope you’re right.

  3. Cate Says:

    Not only did you confirm what I’ve been telling friends, you made me laugh. Excellent analysis.

    I still think McCain wins PA and OH.

    The polls this year are even “wronger” than they were in 2004. Doesn’t anyone else remember the panic that hit Drudge in the afternoon, only to be completely reversed later that night? I avoided TV coverage and stuck to blogs, who were reporting the real results.

    Have faith! The media blind many but they don’t blind all.

  4. Jeremy Says:

    Man I hope you are right . . .

    291 – Obama (VA, IA, NV, CO changing from red to blue)
    247 – McCain (Nothing changing from blue to Red)

    PA, CO, NV being very very tight but all breaking to Obama.

    Like I said, I hope and pray you are right.

  5. Jeremy Says:

    I forgot NM changing red to blue in my earlier comment.

    Ed: Thanks, even though I call it for Obama, it should have been added in with NV and IA as states that swung that direction.

  6. Cs Says:

    From your mouth to God’s ears, I think. How long will the howling and the recounts and the lawsuits go on?

  7. Greg Says:

    I love these projections that assume that voting hasn’t already been taking place.

    1.5 million people have already voted in Colorado. Only 2.1 million people voted in Colorado in 2004. The party breakdown between Dem/Rep/Ind is 38/36/26.

    You really think that with that breakdown of voters that you can STILL pull out a 2% victory in Colorado? To put it into perspective, PPP says that of the population that has already voted, 58% voted for Obama, and 41% for McCain. That’s a 270,000 vote advantage for Obama, in a state where only 558,000 more people voted in 2004 than have already voted.

    In order to overcome that margin, and squeak out a victory, assuming that this election has similar numbers of voters as the last one, McCain would have to win 80% of the remaining votes. If 100% of the people over the age of 18 showed up, he’d still have to win 60% of the remaining voters in order to win Colorado!!

  8. Troy Riser Says:

    Your projections are overly optimistic, I think, if Indiana is representative of your thinking. An Indiana resident and strong McCain/Palin supporter, I have never before seen anything like the ground game the Obama people are playing here. I hate to admit it, but I think they’re going to pull it out of Indiana this election, at least insofar as the presidential race is concerned. We’ve had saturation Obama TV ads, for example, and it’s fair to say I haven’t seen a single McCain ad, although Mitch is still out there swinging against Jill Long, perennial loser (she lost to Dan Quayle for the US Senate those many years ago). At best, it will be a near-run thing. Thus, if you think Indiana’s in the bag, your assessment of the situation on the ground in other states is probably suspect, as well. I think Obama will likely get both PA and Ohio, putting him over the top, probably Indiana and Missouri, possibly Virginia and Florida, and certainly Colorado. I mean, come on: Colorado? Colorado has been purple going to blue for years, now, and you’re calling it for McCain?

  9. Re: Boldly Optimistic Predictions « Conservatives For McCain Says:

    [...] Boldly Optimistic Predictions Steven: Bob Krumm and Vox Popoli have offered their predictions of a McCain victory and seem to emerge with similar [...]

  10. DN Says:

    You say: “With its Democratic governor, New Mexico is even more blue than it was four years ago when Kerry won here by only 6,000 votes, the smallest margin of any state in nation.”

    But Bush won NM in 2004.

    Not saying I disagree with the rest of the analysis, but the stated fact is wrong.

    Ed: Just corrected that before seeing your comments here, but thanks. You’re right Bush won by 6k.

  11. Mwalimu Daudi Says:

    And here are my predictions:

    Obama: 49%
    McCain: 45%
    ACORN: 8%

    I am aware that these percentages add up to more than 100%. So what? That has always been the case in heavy Democrat counties since I was a pup, where the number of votes cast routinely exceed the actual number of voters. At any rate, the Obama/ACORN vote gives the Messiah a 400+ Electoral College total, and a gain of 20 or more House seats to go along with a 10 seat gain in the Senate. FL, CO, NV, MO, VI, OH, and even NC all “turn” blue.

    And in 2012? Here is a “pre-poll”:

    Obama: 99.3%
    Citizens who did not understand instructions: 0.7%

  12. Bo Says:

    your predictions are terrible. Of course, mine could be as well, but I would take a large wager about the accuracy of your predictions.

    At the very least, Obama is going to win 291 EVs, by winning the Kerry states, IA, NM, CO, VA, and NV. In all likelihood, he will pick off Ohio and/or Florida.

  13. Mael Says:

    I tend to agree with Bob. I live in Chesterfield VA our county went for Bush by more than 60% last time and it looks like that number is going even higher this year. There is one thing I’ve been hearing and that is that people are scared of Obama. I have been doing lots of canvasing and it is really difficult to find Obama supporters who aren’t minorities. We also can not keep signs in our offices. More are going out than with Bush. Yes there are a few Obama signs but they are far and in between. I did find one Bob Barr supporter and he was leaning McCain. I’ve also encountered Democrats for McCain and for Many of them this is their first time voting Republican. There have been a lot of bad assumptions in this race. We will see how bad those assumptions are tomorrow. I’ll be working the polls as I have in 2004 and 2006.

  14. Ottovbvs Says:

    Of recent times conservativism has developed several besetting sins. Sins which I might add are going to make it incredibly difficult to work our way out of the hole we’re in. High amongst these sins is a rejection of reality. And this little homily is a classic case. I looked at all the polls this morning and not surprisingly they are all converging because no one wants to look like a complete chump on Wednesday morning. At the national level it’s clear the parameters of the Obama win are going to be somewhere between 5 and 11 percentage points and I’m starting to believe it will be at the higher end because of turnout predictions of around 65%. Take look at the RCP average where he has the highest aggregate he’s had in the last four months and he’s broken the 90% level in the betting odds. If you go through the state polls they’ve barely moved, a notch in McCain’s direction here or in Obama’s there. I see nothing that tells me he isn’t going to pull at least 325 EV and some evidence he could pull off in the high 300′s. So what evidence if Frumm’s prediction based upon. We’re going to grow up guys and get out of this idiotic cocoon or it’s going to kill us.

  15. Scott Says:

    McCain wins FL, NC, VA, and OH, and probably NV too. I am hoping he can hold CO but it worries me. I think NM is lost, as is IA. I would love to see Mac win NH, but I’m just not sure about that one. It seems to me that it comes down to PA — if McCain can win it, he’s president.

  16. edj Says:

    Good predictions. People forget that Obama is good at winning caucuses and not secret ballots (maybe that’s why he is sympathetic to union card check). And against Hillary in these Midwest states, Obama underperformed his polls. Why wouldn’t this happen again?

  17. physics geek Says:

    I might change my mind tomorrow morning, but this is how I see it now:

    McCain holds in FL, NC, VA and NV, and picks up PA. He loses IA, CO and NM. McCain would, without willful fraud on the part of Brunner, win Ohio. Unfortunately, I believe that Brunner will hand massage the votes to help Obama carry the state. And the loss of Ohio costs McCain the election.

    McCain: 266 ev
    Obama: 272 ev

    Obama racks up enormous wins in CA and NY, giving him a final popular vote win over McCain, 49-47, with the other 4% being spread out among other candidates.

  18. James Says:

    Well, that is in some ways encouraging.

    All I can think is, if Obama loses: batten down the hatches.

    If he wins: batten down the hatches.

  19. SamIam Says:

    Bob, you are almost persuading me to stay up watching the returns but my fear and dread is still prevailing. I don’t think I can take it.

    I will pray that you are Nostradomus reincarnated, only better the second time around!

  20. eddie Says:

    I have faith in America. McCain wins. I cannot tell anyone how. But Americans are not fools and America has not changed that much since 2004.

    Junior is the farthest left candidate who has ever run to become POTUS. If America has become a far left nation, the world is in dire straits. One world government will not be far behind an Obama victory (God prevent).

  21. Brennan Monaco » Blog Archive » Election Projections Says:

    [...] Even the polls have Virginia back to a toss-up after being solidly blue for a while. As Bob Krumm points out, the Democratic brand still isn’t the most popular in the Old [...]

  22. Dave Says:

    I’ve been leaning in the last few days towards thinking we’ll have a McCain lead in the popular vote but an Obama (praise be His name) win in the EC. Just watch the “But Al Gore really won” idiots change their tune.

  23. rightwingprof Says:

    Let’s hope you’re right. You’re right about Indiana. I lived there almost all my life, until four years ago, and there is no way Obama will take it, despite what our “graphic designer” claims. I live now in Pennsylvania, and “boots on the ground” doesn’t even begin to describe what folks are doing here. We have had to turn away volunteers all week from both McCain offices in town because there was no room for them. Murtha really honked people off, and Bill Russell and McCain supporters are enthusiastic. Last week, Palin was here and drew over 7,000, who stood for hours outside in the cold rain and high arctic winds; the next day, Bill Clinton was here and only drew 1,500.

    And this is a college town.

    The media and polls are, I think, vastly underestimating GOP enthusiasm, which will translate into turnout. I’m working the polls tomorrow; we’ll see.

  24. right wing professor Says:

    I agree on both counts, McCain wins the EC and Obama wins the popular vote. Wait until the riots in the street begin!

  25. Right Wing Nation » Prediction Says:

    [...] Oh yes. Bob Krumm’s prediction. [...]

  26. Arthur Says:

    “… won’t be pretty”? If it comes out the way you say, it’ll be insanely fun! I’ll be watching talkshows for 48 hours straight keeping count of exploding heads and strokes.

  27. henna Says:

    I don’t believe these polls. They want Obama to look like he’s winning. Praying ever night for Mcain. I pray your prediction is right and God in listening and will make it happen.

  28. Jan Says:

    Reading the analysis on this site made my day, so far, including some of the upbeat comments (like right wing professor). I become revitalized hearing the on-the-ground stories of enthusiastic volunteer work going on in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

    There is simply so much misinformation, fraud, media “Obama salivation” going on, that getting a true grip on election figures seems nearly impossible.

    So, sites like this one are priceless in their sensibility, and listening to the people who are actually doing the voting.

  29. Neomalthus Says:

    Wishful thinking. Obama will get at least 311 electoral votes, more likely something in the 360 range.

    It’s Monday afternoon and Obama futures have moved above 90%: Iowa Electronic Markets 91.3% InTrade 90.6%

    BTW, why was Blountville, Tennessee on McCain’s itinerary today? Seems like a waste of time. McCain WILL win Tennessee.

    Ed: Wishful spinning. McCain was in TN today for the same reason that he is in Kentucky every time he goes to Cincinnati: that’s where the airport is. Bristol, Virginia’s airport is just across the border in Tennessee.

  30. Jake Says:

    Bookmarked. I hope you’re right, but fear you’re wrong.

    *If* you’re right, this will be remembered as the greatest polling failure in the history of the nation–surpassing even Dewey Defeats Truman.

    We’ll see.

  31. SaveAmerica Says:

    Deeply hope Bob is right.

    However, America will get what her deserved. I lived in California but will vote for McCain even the state is deep blue. I believe, people who vote for Obama and get their wishes will regreted later.

    God helps America. A-man.

  32. Mabus Says:

    LOL!!!! Is this suppose to be some comedy. All I can say it will be a landslide. Nothing more…

  33. Harriett Says:

    I have faith in America.McCain wins.He is the right person to be our next president.Smart Americans won’t vote for someone they know nothing about & scares us.Obama will destroy our country & weaken our military.He wants to make us “One Nation” & the Democrats want to be our dictators.Obama disrespects our flag & refuses to say the pledge of alegience.He disrespects our military & wants to change the 2nd amendment.

  34. Lee Says:

    Links to Insty and The Corner on the same day?


  35. Webutante Says:

    This is an amazing prediction, Bob. I tend to think you’re wrong and yet some nagging doubt inside says you could be right. In any and all events, we’re in for turbulent times ahead.

    Keep posting. I’m listening and linking.

  36. revgary Says:

    When President Obama turns out to be a moderate, and all the one world gov, Islamic terrorist, socialist, communist world-destroying, American-hating Anti-Christ slurs about him are dis proven by his middle of the road policies,what are you guys going to say? Will you apologize for your misquotes and outright lies? No, you’ll say that it is your PRAYERS that have restrained the Anti-Christ Obama, to give America time to repent and elect President Palin. (I know you too well–I am related to some of you.)

  37. DallasTexan Says:

    Interesting take on the election and I do think that McCain will win. The suburbs here are overrun with McCain signs, despite everything working in the favor of a Democratic nominee. The economy is looking like we’re facing the next great depression with massive lay-offs being announced every week, the Big 3 on the verge of collapse and big business looking downright evil with their golden parachutes. Throw in an unpopular war (or two) that was started looking for WMD’s that were never found and it is certainly perplexing that a Republican could win the White House.

    Don’t worry, Republicans. The Democrats aren’t too good at picking candidates that appear to a large enough cross section of our country. They couldn’t make it easier by picking the Senator with the most liberal voting record could they? How about one with limited experience? And the clincher, I’m sorry to say, is that he is part African American. Yes, there are plenty of blue collar white voters who have been hit with or have seen reverse discrimination at the minimum. There is still a significant percentage of our population that ARE racist. I’m no screaming liberal white guy, but I see it all the time.

    The Democrats would have won hands down with Hillary….

  38. Phillymiss Says:

    I live in Philadelphia, a deep blue city, but there are quite a few McCain/Palin signs in some areas. Last election I hardly saw any signs for Bush. Also, Obama supporters came to my house THREE TIMES because I was undecided (I’ve decided to go with McCain — not because I love the guy but because I think he is more qualified than Obama). He really has some dedicated volunteers, but I think he will win the state, despite the big turnout in Philly.

    No one believes me, but I think McCain will squeak out a win.

  39. PittsburghStealer Says:

    Bob, I think you are right. But looking ahead, I’m going to call it 2012 for Palin, and 2028 for Trig.

  40. Nick Says:

    I agree with the elderly vote in Florida to determine the state. They will show up on Tuesday while the youth will be too busy hung over. McCain takes Florida.

    I want to make one comment that we all forget about which has to do with the last home game of the Washington Redskins before the general election. If they win their last home game, the current party retains office and if they lose, then of course the current party loses office. This has been 100% accurate since 1938 or the teams inception. This Phenomenon has only been tripped up once, Can anyone guess what election and who defied the statistic ?

    GO SKINS !!!!!!!!!!!

  41. Dave R. Says:

    …just what color is the sky in YOUR world?? So much credibility is lost when hope collides with facts, and the hopes make it to print.

  42. Zahir Says:

    I find this prediction unconvincing. Frankly, a McCain win would be one of the biggest upsets in political history. He is the nominee of a party with a hugely unpopular incumbent, during a financial crisis that is perceived as preventable by government action (or, put another way, caused by government inaction). McCain has a poor relationship with the Republican base while Obama has a passionate one with his. When a crisis hit, Obama focussed on remedies while McCain has engaged (albeit by proxy) in character attacks that the American people don’t buy–or, more accurately, do not care much about. Add to that the historical patterns about parties retaining the White House three terms in a row (fairly rare, actually) and what happens to incumbent parties after long, unpopular wars. More, the undecided voters have pretty clearly been scared away by Sarah Palin, who has demonstrated in most people’s eyes ignorance at best about vital issues.

    The numbers say Obama has a commanding or solid lead in just under the states needed to get elected. Virtually every single other state would have to break for McCain, which is wildly unlikely.

    And this election isn’t up to God. It is up to us, which is why God created us with free will.

  43. Michael Says:

    All I have to say tomorrow night around 9:00 EST we will all know who is the projected winner. All I ask from you “BOB” is write another story saying how wrong you were. Man you righ wing nuts are out of your minds. This will be a route.



  45. TEXAS Says:

    As an African AMerican, what scares you? This doom and gloom is ignorant at best. If you don’t agree with someone policy that is fine but he scares you.Grow the heck up! People of all races and creeds are CEO’s,MD, soldiers.etc! Stop all this childish the world is ending..oh my GOD! The “end times” have started and the anti-god has risen.You sound stupid and uneducated,which many of you are. Mccain and Palin are the two must uneducated people I have seen run for office but the USA is larger than them,Obama,Rush,Hannity etc,..Grow up! Your the same people that cried over BUSH and now your happy he is out! You freaking voted BUSH in and we should trust your views? Are you serious?

  46. Independent Jon Says:

    Bob, I do believe you are over reaching with your predictions. I suspect you are just trying to rally your base. All your predictions are wishful thinking. It’s possible but its a loooooooooong shot. I say go back to fear mongering instead of giving HOPE. That’s what you repubs are good at. Keep dreaming.

  47. Two Predictions of a McCain Win Tomorrow « The Tizona Group Says:

    [...] Predictions of a McCain Win Tomorrow November 4, 2008 — Angus Dei From Bob Krumm and Vox [...]

  48. Sherry Smith Says:

    When it comes down to it, you all are really afraid of him because he is an educated black man!! Thank God Black America is embracing the white part of him as well!!

  49. SRS Says:

    What ARE you people smoking? It’s over and McCain loses.

  50. ron culbertson Says:

    I totally agree; I am a redneck from eastern pennsylvania; Many, many of us will bring our state to McCain.

  51. Toni Elliott Says:

    I been reading many of these predictions of yours. And let me say I couldn’t stand Bush and McCain is just more of the same. We need change and that is a fact. I’ve watched all of the debates and if all of you think that McCain will pull out the election you are not only living in a fantasy world, but must be smoking something illegal as well. There is no way is he going to pull this off. Too many of the states that matter are for Obama. Sorry people, get a grip and wake up. You may not like it, but McCain will still be a senator in on wednesday.

  52. Obama 08 Says:

    I believe you’re trying to project anything that can be grasped as hope. It’s going to be a landslide.

    Good luck.

  53. NotJoeThePlumber Says:

    Bush lost the 2000 election. The U.S. Supreme Court, on a 5-4 Republica-NotRepublican majortiy, voted to suspend the Florida recount on the 36th day, based on nothing in the Constitution. Gore was ahead at that point.

    Ed: Geesh! Aren’t you past that yet?

    But you bring up a good point for Republicans to keep in mind in the event that my predictions are wrong: If Republicans support wacko conspiracy theories like this guy, saying that ACORN stole the 2008 election, you’ll sound like idiots and guarantee an Obama reelection in four years.

  54. Mufftache Says:

    My only surprise tomorrow will be if Obama doesn’t get 400 E.V.’s.

    Brilliant campaign,brillint person up against mediocrity personnified.

  55. Dirk Studwell Says:

    Just like we got with Bush…. we got exactly what we deserved…

  56. jcking76 Says:

    # revgary Says:
    November 3rd, 2008 at 2:57 pm

    When President Obama turns out to be a moderate, and all the one world gov, Islamic terrorist, socialist, communist world-destroying, American-hating Anti-Christ slurs about him are dis proven by his middle of the road policies,what are you guys going to say? Will you apologize for your misquotes and outright lies? No, you’ll say that it is your PRAYERS that have restrained the Anti-Christ Obama, to give America time to repent and elect President Palin. (I know you too well–I am related to some of you.)

    Wow! You took the words right out of my mouth. Granted it’s not the U.S. Presidency but Obama was moderate in relation to how he performed as Editor of the Harvard Law Review.

  57. Canadian Brother Says:

    I don’t think god has anything to do with politics. You know the puppet master runs the American show.
    Educate yourself and find true freedom in knowledge , Not the book of revelations. As the so called leaders of the free world i pray you don’t destroy us all. You won’t find the rest of the world high in confidence with comments like these. Oh and thanks for the financial crisis! Have any of you thought about where it started, why it happened, who might be held accountable? or is that a mute point in the realm of the divine!
    Maybe one day you will get past the racism, prejudice and fear. lord help us ALL.

  58. obama rocks Says:

    I look forward to u having ur head up in ur ass tomorrow.Just be sure to write an apology to the readers stating that ur a moron & dont know what ur doing.

  59. skip dumas Says:

    all you hokie white people, shame on you, 24 yrs special forces-army, mccain is no hero, he spilled the beans in vietnam, when rouge on a bombing run, got shot down, obama is a peace maker, mccain likes to fight, send his lame ass to Irag voted for obama, yours truly-your friendly green beret-and i am white!

  60. Godsaveamerica Says:

    @ #35 revgary: I think we spent some time sighing together near the punchbowl at the last family reunion…
    All I can do is cast my vote (unfortunately a throw away because I live in AZ) and hope your predictions are grossly incorrect.
    Win or lose Nov 5th will be a VERY interesting day for all of us.

  61. Stan Says:

    Oil will be $250 a barrel by election day. House prices will never decline. Tech stock are worth +100 times earnings. Deregulation will help the everyone. McCain will win in 2008. Suckers will believe anything.

  62. Vera Says:

    I think Obama will win Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa and eithe Virginia or North Carolina. I’m not sure about Florida, Ohio, or Missouri. I don’t hink Pennsylvania will be as close as everyone thinks.

  63. Rep Girl in Cali Says:

    I pray to God your predictions are accurate. Although my state is shamefully liberal, there are many hopefuls here that are keeping their fingers crossed that the other states will pull through.

    Another scary thought is that my husband is a police officer and they were told that they will be on tactical alert (meaning prepare for a riot) in case the “Chosen One” loses. I don’t see anyone rioting if McCain loses. Strange, isn’t it?

  64. sexxicani Says:

    You people are a bunch of racist morons….. OBAMA for President!!!!

  65. kevin Says:

    yea, you are right, MCCain win, pass it t trig 2012!

  66. Reagan Fan Says:

    I hope you are right, not because I or any of the other commenters are racist, but because of the incredibly outrageous things Obama has proposed: Higher taxes, decreased military spending, a civilian security force (with same strength and funding as the military – is this the SS?), surrendering in Iraq, huge increases in government, and bringing welfare back big-time. This is all in addition to his associations with all the Hate-America crowd. Go McCain!, and try to avoid the riots afterword.

  67. jim boucher Says:

    Well Bob, There’s lightning bolts in an otherwise
    peaceful crystal ball.

    Popular Vote: Obama 50.1 %
    McCain 48.9 %
    Ind. 1.0 %

    Electoral B. G.
    McCain wins: IN,OH,PA,NC,FL
    Obama wins: NV, CO, NM, VA, VT,NH

    Obama 281
    McCain 257

    Sanity says this is real. Hope says Obama 330+

  68. Chris Says:

    Once again, blacks are playing their race card and they haven’t even lost yet!

    Can anybody explain to be why CNN runs stories like “Blacks optimistic about Obama win” and it openly accepted and applauded ?

    Can you imagine running the story “Whites pessimistic about Obama win” ?

    When the election is over tomorrow and McCain wins, I hope it means America is finally taking a stand against all this absurd affirmitive action and reverse discriminiation crap — finally we can get back to a nation where people start taking some personal responsibility for themselves and stop looking for the handout!!


  69. racehorse1 Says:

    I think one of the steps of grieving is denial. I think this is where you are at right now. Obama will take 54% of the popular vote and 380-400 electoral. Your state of grieving hopefully will then move on to acceptance. As a white boy born in the 1950′s it will to me be a historic day in the American historical process.

  70. OBAMA 2008 Says:

    OBAMA/BIDEN 2008. Republicans are so silly it’s unbelievable. You all ran out and voted for Bush like he was the second coming, not once but twice. Now that his term is coming to an end look at the mess the US has become. Now all of you Republicans want to run out and vote for McCain who has voted with Bush 90% of the time. What in the world is wrong with you people. If… McCain does win and the economy gets worse and you are at the funerals of your children and spouses because he refuses to pull the troops out of Iraq just remember you are the ones that are choosing to murder your family but voting for a butcher. He doesn’t care about your families. He only cares about getting elected for his own reasons. When you have Palin as a vice president pulling the same sorry stunts she pulled in the past just remember before you all start moaning and whining. You put her there. When you go to the polls think about your family. Would you rather have your family next to you at the dinner table. Or would you rather be standing at their gravesite with the american flag flapping in the breeze. Reminding you of the choice you made. Wake up America and vote for Obama!!!!!

  71. david Medrano Says:

    This is an election that will be even closer than last time and will be decided the next day and a scandal will break out in pennsylvania with votor fraud there and in other places across the states. Obama does not hava the experience to lead a nation and will certainly put our defenses in harms way if elected. We have an obligation to keep a strong military and strong government at hand. All of your rights are counting on us to be strong as a nation and experience counts most of all. Dont be blindsided

  72. Carey Says:

    Maine!! I’m tellin’ ya MAINE for McCain. The groans from rubber room denizen Keith Oberman and Obama bitch-slave Chris Matthews will change over to maddening sceams when Maine comes in very early

  73. bob Says:

    to those who pray that mccain will pull out a narrow victory: will the mccain presidency be as wildly successful as gerorge w. bush’s? if obama scares you–not because he’s black , of course, because you’re not a racist, no not you–palin should make you wet yourselves–and not in a good way. she’s nearly as stupid as all of the mccain will win predictions. and there’s little chance mccain will survive his stage three cancer another four years.

  74. bob Says:

    my comment awaits moderation. so do your political beliefs.

  75. Ferris Anderson Says:

    To those of you who think McCain can win Pa., well you obviously have never been to Pa. Hell would freeze over before Pa. gives it’s electoral vote to a republican. C’mon. How the hell can you believe that NC and VA won’t flip, but a reliably blue state like Pa will. That must be the hate kool-aid talking. McCain will will NC, IN, MO, maybe Ohio, maybe Florida. He got no chance in CO, and NV is saying hell no. But of all the ludicrous things to say, that Pa will flip to red, is perhaps the most insane. Outside of 1988 when you had an inspirational and optimistic leader like Reagan, Pennsylvanians are blue as can be. McCain still has a chance, but that road does not run through Pa.

  76. Swarzenegger 2012 Says:

    Here’s how I see it coming down… Obama wins after a month of arguing. It’s revealed that he is actually a Kenyan citizen after he is sworn in. An amendment is drafted to allow foreign born citizens (14+ years as US citizen) to run.

    Swarzenegger runs in 2012 and wins in an epic landslide as he sets a new record for electoral college votes with over 500 EC votes after the final tally.

    I figure if someone can blog about McCain actually winning on his own merits instead of stealing the election (proving he’s Bush the 3rd) I can also spin a tale of fantasy and conjucture.

  77. Steve Says:

    Wait, there’s a difference between Obama and McCain? Hmmm.. the president actually has some powers? riots? lol.. yeah the country slides further into the shits and ppl think that electing a president has any bearing on anything. Or that it really matters. lol.. you Walmart shopping Midwest rednecks are all the same.

  78. kobebeef Says:

    Just hope and pray that Obama wins…

  79. Joan Says:

    Nice to hear so many describe the incredible ground game that Obama – who honed his chops as a community organizer – is pulling off. McCain is old school and will be an interesting footnote in history books (for picking one of the least qualified running mates in years). Obama, the minority vote (read majority of America or non-white), the leve-headed so-called majority, youth, and many others are tired of watching our political leaders fatten their personal fortunes by stealing from average Americans. I will be among them dancing in the street for Obamas victory. Tomorrow will be as important to a moment in America’s history as landing on the moon.

  80. rt mitsuda Says:

    All of you in the Red States thank you for the last eight years. You all must be in the top 1%. The rest of the “Nation” is suffering badly. A change is needed. To vote on party lines is ludicrous in these troubled times. I have no “party”. I haven’t voted for over 30yrs. But it’s so important this year that I voted early. It’s refreshing that some Top

    To all the states that voted red for the past two elections thank you very much. You all must be in the top 1%. The rest of the “Nation” is in deep trouble. It’s time for a change. I haven’t voted for over 30yrs. but this time it’s too important. It’s ludicrous to vote along party lines. I don’t have a “party”. I want to see what the other party has to offer. At least if they fall short they’ll only have 4yrs. It’s refreshing to see some influential republicans crossing over. I would do the same thing if the democrates got us into this big mess. I hope we can once again rise up as a “Nation”. I think it’s too soon to be a has been. Think carefully and go out and vote.

  81. Hugh Bush Says:

    What a ridiculous set of predictions. I hope you will apologize after Tuesday… Can’t blame you for being Repubklican…but just for being stupid.

  82. Tim H. Says:

    What a joke. Agree with poster above. What denial. Krum I can’t believe you wasted all that time and writing to make up those fairy tale nmbers. POLLS!! I don’t need to study polls to see what is coming tomorrow night. The only question is whether Obama’s win will be a landslide. Here is a question. Why is your website linked thru yahoo. Which is why I am here. Charlie Cook and much more respected pollster commentators have very different outlooks on your picks. BTW Krum you destroy your argument when throughout your analysis you claim that instead of people voting for Obama. There is some kind of political shenanigans in almost every state Obama wins. I realize why. The GOP right does not “get” Obama. Why soo many people are voting for him. So therefore in their minds it must be some kind of MSM plot or political corruption at play. Very saadd right thinks this way.

  83. H. Harrison Says:

    Vote Electoral
    Obama – 54% 325
    McCain – 43% 213
    Others – 3%

  84. H. Harrison Says:

    Indiana and Pennsylvania go easily for Obama

  85. Chris Says:

    It really sad that there is even the possibility that Obama may win this election!

    How can anyone in their right mind beleive that Obama has 1% of McCains character – the character it takes to lead this country:

    Its not about policy — Obama’s rhetoric can explain away anything (with the help of the media in his pocket) –

    Its about choosing a real AMERICAN hero to be our president —

    I mean, I can understand maybe ONE shady freindship with an anti american wacko – but repeatedly we see this pattern of association with numerous figures of questionable allegiance to our country. Even if you are only 99% sure about Obamas patriotism (And based on the facts, it should be way less than that for anyone with 1/2 a brain) , its not worth the risk of putting this guy in charge!! WAKE UP AMERICA and VOTE MCCAIN BEFORE ITS TOO LATE — THIS GUY LOVES AMERICA 100% — HE’s proven it every day of his life!!

  86. New York Nick Says:

    Hey sexxicani, instead of voicing your opinion as we all are free to do here in AMERICA, you coil into name calling and cry racism ! This country is where it is today because of the immigration laws that brought all races and religions across oceans to live here….those same people have given there lives in defending the freedom they struggled so hard to obtain……..Of all the races living in this wonderful country, there still one that uses the Racism crutch and cry! You should be ashamed !

    I am a republican living in a liberal state but if this election is looked at subjectively, Obama is the better candidate hands down. The truly scary thing about this election is Biden has a strong chance of being our next president by default.

    GO REDSKINS!!!!!!!!!!

  87. Chris Says:

    Word association:



  88. bootboi#1 Says:

    Lol, I do concur racehorse1, denial is one of the steps of grieving and i will be looking forward to reading this users farfetched blog come wed morning ! As a white boy born in the 1970s in Queens N.Y I have never been this excited in my life about an election. Someone like Obama is long overdue(eight yrs to be exact) P.S.i am a registered WHITE republican ! Also one last thing,suppose McCain was the better choice have any of you even conteplated the worst case scenario? A Palin presidency! Honestly is she relly ready or qualified to be President of the United States of America? Maybe in four or eight yrs but definatley not now!

  89. robert Says:


  90. robert Says:


  91. robert Says:


  92. robert Says:


  93. robert Says:


  94. german Says:

    Hey, somebody wake-up this BobKrumm . He,s having a nightmare!!!

  95. Manny Says:

    Is this guy nuts?

  96. Sam Cat Says:

    uhhhhh … good luck with that grade … unless I’ve missed something you better not bring that report card home … :)

  97. robert Says:


    Ed: I’m leaving this hateful comment up. Normally this language would be stricken from my site, but I want people to know that it is Barack Obama’s supporters who are creating this kind of racist drivel.

    Robert, You ought to read this; you aren’t helping your candidate at all. But thanks for being such an ass. Oh, and fix your keyboard. That button called “Shift” (there are probably two of them–either one will work) gets rid of that capitalization.

  98. racehorse1 Says:

    Very fine comment rt mitsuda. The state of America today really is no joke. Our status as a world power has been eroded in 8 years to a point I would previously not thought possible.
    People out in America are truly suffering today. I blame this on the total lack of leadership we have gotten from all segments of our government.
    An early sign was the view of Hurricane Katrina. I had friends in other parts of the world who could not believe the sight, they thought they were looking at a third world country, not the USA.
    Don’t get me wrong, I do not want govt. to take care of its citizens. But we must have leadership and a properly functioning system that is fairer for all its people. If its broke, you must try something different, to not is insanity defined. I sincerely hope Obama can be the leader our nation needs.

  99. Fox Robot Says:

    If you want to get predictions from someone really knowledgeable and astute, I recommend Bob Shrum. Bob Krumm seems to be living a make-believe world.

    The coming Obama landslide will be a statement from most of the American people that we are ready for some intelligence, compassion and positive change in the White House.

  100. Mike Rab Says:

    I wish all this “hatred” would go away. Both McCain and Obama are good people and will be much better Presidents than Bush. I think McCain is fighting an uphill battle largely because of the unpopularity of the current Republican regime. McCain could have done better if he had not chosen Palin to satisfy the extreme right wing of his party. I think she solidified the right wing base but lost a lot of independent voters, myself included, because of her total lack of preparedness and possibly intelligence.

    It is likely to be Obama and I hope he does move toward the center, includes republicans in his administration and starts healing the great divide in this country.

  101. patdem Says:

    You do not have a Crystal Ball! Therefore your predictions are nothing but wishful thinking.

  102. Betty Says:

    As a white woman and small business owner making over 250K, I hope you are sorely wrong. Go OBAMA! (by the way, I’m hiring in ’09, regardless of who wins!!) For people who believe the “joe plumber” hype, you might also be interested in purchasing some lunar real estate from me.

  103. Phil Says:

    I’m looking forward to reading your blog on Wednesday!

  104. george Says:

    yeah right Bob. Rally the troops with wishful thinking. I am nervous, but Obama will win NV, CO, PA, NC, NH, NM. I think a maybe for FL but loses IN, MO, and OH. He holds onto all blue states and guess what, McCain goes home.

    On another note, I am so surprised that you all are ok with Palin – the abuser of power (by a Judge and Indie counsel), the woman who has no idea who Canadian PM is and he main foreign policy experience is dealing with Canada. Seriously?

    Obama is a moderate (yes go ahead and call him liberal) who has proposed very moderate solutions.

    Isn’t it surprising to you that an Eisenhower, a Nixon, a Reagan and Colin Powell are all supporting Obama? Other than Lieberman, name me one prominent Democrat supporting McCain. Name one! President Barack Hussein Obama – now that has a nice ring to it!!!!!

  105. Rico Says:

    LOL….You republicans cannot accept the fact that it is over. Sorry, try again. Reading this BS will only break your heart tomorrow.
    I will make sure to come back to this page after Obama wins, and listen to all your excuses as to how Obama stole your election. Get a life and accept defeat.

  106. NeverMind Says:

    Those are based on your hopes. But based on facts and reality Obama wins by 5-10% PV and 300+ EC. If Obama loses there will be no riots but Prayers that America could recover with a senile president and an idiot vice.

  107. Elijah Says:

    The only thing I agree with you is that God has alreadly made His choice for President, whether Obama or Mccain, it is wrong to assume that God only listens to Republicans. I tell you this, there was a man in the bible that prayed for the nation to be cursed, but instead God blessed the nation abundantly. Be careful what you pray for because God will always deliver according to our needs and not wants. Its a choice being Republican or Democract but it should be a goal for all of us to be Christians. So please stop the cheap shots.

  108. bootboi#1 Says:

    Ed regardless of political preference that kind of ignorance and hatred cannot be tolerated not here not anywhere! This blog should be for intelligent conversation not stupidity!

  109. crysck2002 Says:

    This would be much more interesting if it wasn’t so skewed to the Conservative side.

    McCain keeps saying that it’s not about whether or not we’re better off then we were eight years ago, but if we’ll be better off four years from now…really, is he psychic?

    The question *is* whether we’re better off now, and if you can honestly answer ‘yes’, then you’re either rich, high, or insane.

    As an Indiana resident, I can only hope that my fellow Hoosiers can get their heads out of wherever they’re crammed and do the right thing for the first time since ’64.


    Word association:

    tradition–cause fear of change is *good*.
    honor–what? he’s been smearing Obama since day 1
    hero–how? So he was a POW…doesn’t make him a hero.
    experience–yeah, that’s what we need, more Bush type government.
    accomplishment. What’s he accomplished? So far, it’s smear ads and choosing a running mate who’s been a complete drag on him.

    I can see it’s gonna be close…I’ll be glued to the TV tomorrow night, that’s for sure!

  110. James Says:

    You’re a fucking idiot. I can’t believe you actually believe the crap you say. Obama wins by a landslide…

  111. 00Billy Says:

    You all have scared me ! But, don’t sweat it…I’m Canadian.
    Both candidates scare me too.
    I feel Obama is better in the short term, but McCain is probably better in the long term.
    So, believing the polls can’t be that wrong..

    Obama – 54%
    McCain – 44%
    Ind – 2%

    Here’s to tomorrow night and all the Valium we’ll need !

  112. Steve Renko Says:

    You truly wish for a past that the sun has set on. Wishing for John McCain to be prez in the midst of a historical American period change won’t cut it with the decision by God, Obama will save America from itself. Your comments are scrambled arithmetic numbers swayed by the likes of a return to another four years of a Bush almost alike.

  113. gaga Says:

    Gore was never ahead in the Florida recount in 2000. The Supreme Court decided against Gore 7-2 not 5-4. Gore’s selective recounts were unconstitutional. The 5-4 decision was that the recounting had to end as it violated Florida Law which required the election to be certified.

  114. george Says:

    Chris (#85). After you are done with your guilt by association, here are the facts:

    1. Obama and Ayers served on a Board founded by Republicans and a strong McCain supporter (Annenberg). So does that make Annenberg anti-American? McCain pals around with an actual terrorist – G. Gordon Liddy – does that make McCain anti-American? Stop this guilt by association.
    2. Obama and Kalidi…Obama attended a sendoff party in 2003 for Kalididi. Once. McCain and his group gave half a million dollars to Khalidi several times to foster his cause. So who is more guilty?
    3. Obama and Wright. Obama was not in church when Wright made the 10 seconds of sermon you have seen over and over again (out of 200,000 minutes of sermons). Wright is an ex-Marine honorably discharged. I am an ex-Marine (are you?). McCain hangs out with Phlagee (who is avowed anti-Semite and anti-US – just watch his sermons on TV. So who is more guilty? Palin and her husband belong to AIP in Alaska, a party that specifically calls for Alaska to secede from the USA and its leader calls for destruction of the USA. Palin was there this July. So who is more guilty?
    4. McCain and Keating 5. Millions of poor elderly Americans lost their life savings thanks to McCain. Enough said.
    5. McCain and Phil Gramm…enough said.
    6. Palin and her Kenyan witchdoctor. Enough said.

    So please, stop this silly guilt by association. Obama has done nothing to warrant being labelled as guilty by you fear mongers. If anything, I am afraid of McCain for putting forth no economic policies to help us out of this mess (other than keep Bush’s tax cut and cut capital gains tax an additional 50% like anyone in the middle class has any capital gains). I am afraid because McCain proposes nothing different from Bush’ policies so a vote for McCain is a vote to continue Bush’s policies. That is a fact.

  115. Kobby D Says:

    McCain will cause upset. McCain will win no mather what.

  116. Jennifer Says:

    It’s so scary how people base their voting on whether someone “loves” America more (Which is ridiculous and can never be proven) rather than their policies.

    It’s so scary how people vote based on party lines rather than what each individual plans to do while in office.

    It’s so scary how people are so terrified of change. So terrified of what’s different and they don’t understand.

    What’s even more terrifying is how dumb so many American are. How they need to simplify everything in order to understand it. Oh he’s a hero! Oh he’s a muslim! Oh he’s a socialist!

    The future of this country rides on this election. Let’s hope people make the smart choice.

  117. wow Says:

    The level of delusion on display in the post’s predictions is remarkable. For the record, I do not conclude that you are a racist.

  118. pat in ohio Says:

    All I can do is just pray for an Obama victory!!!!!

  119. bootboi#1 Says:

    Lol Betty well im looking in 09 , I concur george Palin is a disaster !

  120. pat in ohio Says:

    I have read the comments that was left and I am hoping Ohio goes (D) this time

  121. chang Says:

    go obama lol

  122. tex Says:

    i here go obama

  123. Johnmpls Says:

    Forget President Obama. It will be President Biden by January 2010. Obama will resign, either officially or unofficially. Why? He’s incapable of DOING any job. He used “Chicago Dirty Politics” to eliminate his opponents and get into the statehouse. He partnered with a boss in the statehouse to get toward the Senate, then (surprise!) sealed documents got leaked and he won. But before he even got elected, he started running for President.

    Quick: Name one IL state senator who has come out and said something about Obama’s leadership in the statehouse. Or one senator who has said the same. (NOT that they support him, but that they praise his abilities in the Senate.) Clearly, there aren’t any. For the simple reason that he didn’t lead or accomplish anything. When things quit being easy, he headed for the next job. He will be completely clueless as President, won’t be able to “vote present”, and will either officially or unofficially stepdown.


  124. tex Says:

    i drinking some coors the night of the election.obama for president

  125. ROLAND Says:

    You are wrong. Obama will be the next president! Get over it. The winds of change are blowing hard.

  126. Dr. Teddy Says:

    Sounds like you and Diebold have been juggling the voting machines again.

    Hope you like crow ’cause you’ll be eating plenty of it.

  127. KG Says:

    I live in Franklin County, Ohio. My parents live in Cuyahoga County. You’ve completely misjudged the situation on the ground here: if it goes to McCain, it’ll be by a sliver.

  128. JO Says:

    DREAM ON!!!!




  129. brian Says:

    arnold cant run in 2012 he was not born in the no arnold in 2012

  130. Chris Says:

    I think a good case can be made that the current economic crisis in the US is not entirely the fault of the Republican party as the Democrats would desperately have you believe.

    And whats all this last 8 years was terrible BS?

    I didn’t hear any homeowners complaining when their homes appreciated at record pace through the early 2000s and people had money to burn and masses of equity. Haven’t had a terrorist attack for 7 1/2 years either.

    This is the typical nature of lazy spoiled American liberals — when the going gets tough, lets have a handout from the Government.

    Come on, do you libs really hate the American way so much, that you should be rewarded for working hard? We don’t need more government, we need more freedom. If you can go out and be successful in this country, its because you’re not trying hard enough… Look at the success stories around you, poor immigrants and minorities who have acheived what they wanted by hard work and perseverence. People looking for welfare and the government to enforce “fairness” make me sick. Beleive me, when the shit hits the fan, you’ll wish you had realized that taking responsibility for your own success and well being is the only way to be really free…

  131. brian Says:

    ronald reagan 2012

  132. brian Says:

    marshal applewhite 2012

  133. brian Says:

    charles manson 2012

  134. Thomas Says:

    Overpopulation, over consumption, dwindling palatable water/oil/arable land/species, dictates more war and civil strife.

    I predict martial law and civil war, and that secretive elitists delusionally believing they can control it all, will fail miserably.

    Whether the administrators of nuclear weapons can control their suicidal urges (blinded by angry aggressions) during the final battle of WWIII is anybody’s guess.

    I predict 5 to 6 major U.S. cities will be nuked, 7 major European cities nuked, 4 Middle Eastern cities nuked, and 15 Asian cities nuked, for a total of 1.3 billion killed, followed by mass starvation of another 2.5 billion.

  135. Ann Fendley Says:

    Diebold and all the other electronic voting machines (contolled by PARTISAN REPUBLICANS) will determine the election by VOTE FLIPPING. Hey! NO PAPER TRAIL! An obvious win for McCain in OHIO, VA, FL, CO!

  136. summerslam Says:

    Obama has promised America everything they want to hear. Has effectively defended his proposal of raising taxes, has effectively defended all his questionable associations. In words, not actions. Obama cannot be associated with any major mistake while serving as a senator because as a senator, he has done nothing. He will win the presidential election as he won the senatorial elections. On empty promises. The hell with America, Obama’s goal is to win and make history as the first President of the United States of African descent. He doesn’t care what happens after. He has enough words in his vocabulary to defend his future non-performance. Imagine his and his family’s faces replacing previous images of an American family. Imagine his face representing America’s choice. Imagine Michelle Obama’s face being plastered in all newspapers worldwide as America’s newest first lady. I’d still rather see Jackie Kennedy but hell, that’s wishful thinking.

  137. brian Says:

    bob krumm 2012

  138. brian Says:

    bob krumm and ed as the vp 2012

  139. brian Says:

    bush 2012

  140. serecovery Says:

    It must be nice to live in the alternate universe that Bob Krumm lives in. A world where “up 5″ really means “down 5″

    Note to Bob: The Ministry of Truth and Doublespeak approves of your work.

    What’s your next post, the Titanic really didn’t sink and you know where Atlantis is?

  141. lambchop Says:

    On numerous occasions, Mccain talks about “reaching accross party lines”, and within 30-40 seconds, in the same speach, he tells his screaming supporters, how he is going to be Pelosi’s and the domcratic house, “worst nightmare”. Mccain, used to be a good man, is really losing it up there. With that said, have any of you listened to “president” palin?? talk about stupid!! she does not even know what the first ammendment means. Does not even have the intellect to “fake” knowledge. Add,arrogance, total disregard to our laws, rules and regulations, and ya, “abuse of power”..Do you people really like to have another dick cheney?? please wake up and vote for Barak.

  142. patdem Says:

    Chris: Here’s a few things you left off McCains list:

    Keating 5
    Bush Policies
    VP Choice a joke

  143. Michael D Says:

    You are a dreamer! Actually, I think delusional is a better title.

  144. Lindsey Says:

    I think it is disgusting that people are going to base their decision on race. GROW UP!!!! I am willing to bet my entire life savings, that if Obama were white, he would win no questions. Instead, you McCain supporters are voting for a 73 year old, 4 time cancer patient who is just like Bush. Do you see the country we live in? We are in a depression because of a Republican? Don’t you remember when Clinton was in office? He was Dem and we had one of the best economies ever. All I am saying is put race aside and focus on the issues at hand. Who would do a better job at getting us out of this hell hole?

  145. zeno Says:

    ” 2. Obama and Kalidi…Obama attended a sendoff party in 2003 for Kalididi. Once.”

    Did he speak at this sendoff? If so, what did he say? Why is the LA Times hiding the tape?



  147. ATL Says:

    Obama 55

    McCain 45
    Listen,you to me you all fear mongers,McCain is a decent man of high standard. His problem is that he embraced all the arrogancy and wrong doings of Mr Bush and some other statements he made.Obama is a refined,Heaven sent that America cannot afford ti missed.God works through him.Watch out for the level of defeat McCain will suffer tommorow.

  148. Dew5050 Says:

    Right wing nut cases are consoling themselves here. You believe in polls only when mccain is ahead, but when he is down, you won’t believe anymore. Continue day dreaming, I don’t think you guys realizes how tired and fed up, americans are with the gop brand.

    The mistake gop made was to underestimate obama. I warned you guys to underestimate him at your peril, look what is happening now! I will be back after the results are in, to see how you all are wallowing in self pity. Take heart gop, take heart!!

  149. Rex Little Says:

    I don’t care what the polls say. Obama will win in a landslide because the electorate basically comes down to three groups:

    1. Those who think Obama walks on water, then changes it into wine.

    2. Those who think McCain is the lesser evil. (The number of these who will actually vote is increased by the Palin nomination, but not enough to win.)

    3. Those who know nothing more than that Bush is the W*O*R*S*T P*R*E*S*I*D*E*N*T E*V*E*R and for that reason will not vote for anyone whose name ends in (R).

    Group 3 will swing the vote to Obama in any state that isn’t deep crimson.

  150. The Obama Bubble? Says:

    [...] Bob Krumm: Nationwide: Going in to election day, Obama will be leading 47% to 44% with 7% undecided. McCain wins the undecided almost 5:2. Increased support from black voters in the three Ds (DC, Detroit, and the Deep South) along with gains in other reliably red states runs up Obama’s popular vote totals, but adds nothing to the electoral bottom line. The only states he turns in his favor are two very white ones (Iowa 2% black and Nevada 6% black), providing evidence against the charge of racism. But facts don’t get in the way of the story line that racism decided the race. [...]

  151. Preparándose para el final « Sarah Palin en Español Says:

    [...] Bob Krumm, bloguista conservador: McCain – Palin 273 y Obama – Biden 244, con los 21 votos electorales de Pennsylvania sin asignar (aún así ganaría McCain). [...]

  152. Robert Vaughn Says:

    I must admit that this has been one of the most interesting campaigns that I have ever witnessed. For so many years the voter turn out has been marginal at best. Both candidates have aroused the American people to get them out to vote and that should be a good thing. Personally I will be voting for Obama, Mc Cain really never has said what exactly he will do to fix the economy…other than to tax my insurance premiums.

  153. waitandsee Says:

    I really don’t understand all these people that are so proud of the turn out that put Bush back in office. If you really want to think about who to vote for you might as well look at the potential vice presidents. Mccain is going to have a blow out the first time congress tells him no, so that will but Palin in charge. She may be good for comedy skits on T.V. but whose going to pull her strings and make her lips move when Mccain’s gone? Then we have Obama. No matter how far this country has gone it still has not gone far enough. I’m sure it will become some sick internet game to see who can off him first. So that would put Biden in. So our choices really are only Palin and Biden.

  154. ANNA Says:

    McCain wins and America continues to be sold piece by piece. Palin are you joking? So go ahead and keep your heads in the sand…the Arabs own that too!

    The Arabs own 20 % of Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. was sold to Borse Dubai. Bushes response: “I’m comfortable with the process to go forward”

    Dubai bought in 2006

    Helmsley Building, New York ($705)

    Civica Office Commons, Bellevue, Wash. ($141)

    The Lingerie Building, New York ($94)

    Hackensack University Medical Plaza, Hackensack, N.J. ($88)

    The Park at Sawgrass Mills, Sunrise, Fla. ($74)

    July 2008
    The Abu Dhabi Council bought a 75% stake in the tower for $800 million

    The council is to acquire a 75% stake in the building from Germany’s TMW Immobilien AG.

    Owns a stake in the Citibank Group

    The agreement would follow last month’s deal in which a group led by Boston Properties Inc would buy the GM Building and three others from Macklowe Properties for $3.45 billion. The Post said investors in that deal included the wealth funds of Kuwait and Qatar.

    In December 2007, Dubai World, an investment arm of the ••Dubai government, purchased 5 million shares of MGM Mirage, increasing its share of the company to 6.5 percent.

    In November 2007, Emirates Airlines detailed plans to ••buy 12 Boeing 777s worth approximately $3.2 billion. This order, along with previous sales, means that Boeing will, on average, deliver one airplane a month to Emirates Airlines for at least the next four years.

    In November 2007, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority ••announced a critical $7.5 billion dollar capital infusion into Citigroup. This will result in a 4.9 percent share in Citigroup, which had recently faced financial difficulties associated with subprime mortgage problems.

    In November 2007, Jafza International of Dubai ••announced its intention to establish a new warehouse and transportation hub in Orangeburg, South Carolina. The “greenfield” facility reportedly would involve a $600 million dollar investment in a location with high unemployment and create as many as 5,000 new jobs.

    In October 2007, Cold Stone Creamery of Scottsdale ••Arizona, in partnership with the Apparel Group of the UAE, made public its plans to open a retail outlet in Dubai’s Festival City. This was followed in quick succession by two further premium ice cream outlets in December 2007.

    In March 2007, Halliburton, a major player in the oil ••services sector, announced plans to move its corporate headquarters from Houston to Dubai. The move reflects the new importance of the UAE as an international center of oil-related business deals and is a vote of confidence for the business climate in Dubai.

    These are just to name a few…do your homework because as it stand now, you failed.

  155. zeno Says:

    As a Canadian, I would like to extend my congratultations to all the participants in this general erection who are making it not necessarily the “most important election ever” but the most entertaining.

    We just had a federal election and it was a yawner.

  156. Scope G. Says:

    As an observer , all I can say is that “people elect the leaders they deserve” and Americans voted Bush 2004 , and you saw it yourselves what happened!!! . Frankly , I have always been of the impression that Americans deserved better . Please dont undercut yourselves this time by going the McCain way . You deserve better……….unless you are happy with the current economic status, the wars , the lies and all the lovely stuff that the Republican adminstration put on offer.

  157. don Says:

    I don’t care if the next president is black, white, red, yellow or green – but i do care if the next president wants to “Spread the wealth around” because i have a feeling that some of the wealth he wants to spread is going to be mine. For a great many years i have seen people who get on welfare and just stay the rest of their lives – i have seen third and fourth generations who live pretty high on the hog with government money while my taxes just keep going up. Obama wants to “Take care of the little guy” but wants to use money from the people who go out and work for a living, That stuff about only taxing people who make more than $250,000 is a joke – all it would do is penalize the ones who are going out and doing something rather than sit on the porch and collect the welfare check. That is what i don’t like about Obama.

  158. LIla Says:

    Forever I walk among the ignorant!
    That was for you Robert….

    I consider Obama the lessor of two evils. I choose inexperience over ignorance. Which is what we will have with Palin in office. McCains health should weigh heavier on the minds of voters.

  159. William Says:

    Delusional. It won’t be close, I guarantee it.

  160. Porter Says:

    Point of order:

    In Wisconsin, it’s a Muskellunge or “Muskie” and you better use a steel rod and 100 pound test, with a steel leader for those teeth.

    And I personally don’t think they taste very good. Walleye, thank you.

    Ed: But they look good on a wall with all those teeth. And definitely Walleye over Muskie. Just had some myself a couple weekends ago. Even down here in TN we have them in some of our deeper lakes. But nothing like Lake Erie.

  161. SusieQ Says:

    All I can say is heads up for McCain ! I love your outlook !
    GO MCCAIN. I’m a Maverick, you’re a Maverick, wouldn’t you like to be a Maverick too !
    America Loves you John and Sarah !
    YOU GO !!

    He is superman. Look at what he did today.
    8 STATES ! LOOKS DAMN GOOD TO ME. He is holding up better that I could ever.

    He never left.

  162. Steve Says:

    I don’t think you’re racist, at least I sure hope not in this day and age, but I do think you are ignorant. A new voice and new plan is needed. More of the same will not help us at this critical time.

  163. Daily Pundit » Not A Happy Outcome, Necessarily Says:

    [...] » My prediction [...]

  164. » Karl Rove predicts Obama landslide, Bushie bloggers delusional - predict McCain win Says:

    [...] Bob Krum: McCain 273 – 244 [...]

  165. GW Says:

    i hope you are right about your predictions. my hubby says the same thing, but i am less certain. if obama wants to accuse americans of “clinging to their guns and religion” when things get hard, he may be nearer the truth than the statement reflects. it may be all we have left, and he’s going to take that from us, too.

    you can call me a racist for early voting for mc cain because i believe in patriotism and the necessity of an elite military force that provides us the peace that is sometimes found only at the end of war, and because i believe in the american dream and the benefits of free enterprise and entrepreneurship, and because i believe in liberty and free will: a fundamentally basic concept that drives men (and women) to excel, persevere, and accomplish.

    if my basic moral belief of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness makes me a racist, then so be it because i’m not going to cast a vote that will volunteer these rights to be taken from me.

    i’ll suffer another four years of bush rather than put 60% of the House and Senate vote in the hands of the liberal democrats. if bush accomplished anything at all, he kept the liberals from creating a “democratic socialistic” society by exercising one of two presidential powers–he vetoed and vetoed and vetoed. and now, the threat is revisited.

    and yes, if obama wins, the riots will begin.
    and if mc cain wins, the riots will begin.

  166. Charlie (Colorado) Says:

    I think it’ll end up a little stronger for McCain, by Iowa. I live in Colorado (ergo the cognomen) and I think the PPP folks aren’t calculating in the stubborn old cowboy effect: won’t tell you how they’re gonna damned well vote. I also know that the Democrats have announced that Obama has it nailed down, and McCain and the RNC are pulling out, at least 3 or 4 times, but Palin and McCain keep coming through. It’s *way* closer than that PPP figure. Their notion that Palin has hurt McCain here … I can’t see it. I want to see their methodology.

    In any case, I think it’s about 303-310 EV McCain.

  167. Charlie (Colorado) Says:

    I don’t think you’re racist, at least I sure hope not in this day and age, but I do think you are ignorant. A new voice and new plan is needed. More of the same will not help us at this critical time.

    Uh, Steve, what you want to be true doesn’t actually apply here: he’s asking for a polling prediction.

    I think it would be nice to have a pony, but that doesn’t change the poll either.

  168. Election Predictions : Stop The ACLU Says:

    [...] is pessimistic: Obama 318, Maverick 220 Ed Morrissey is optimistic: McCain 273, Obama 265! Bob Krumm is optimistic: Obama 244, McCain 273 Karl Rove is pessimistic: Obama 338, McCain 200. Vox Day is optimistic, [...]

  169. Dave Says:

    Americans are not fools. They will not vote “Wright Lite” into office.

  170. Mary Says:

    Please God, you’re right.

  171. soonerdaddy Says:

    If only a spelling test were given prior to being allowed to vote…or post.

  172. physics geek Says:

    Here’s my prediction:

    Obama: 272 ev
    McCain: 266 ev

    McCain holds serve in NC, VA, Fl and NV, while picking up PA. He loses OH due to the malfeasance of Brunner, which ends up costing him the election due to the loss of CO and NM from 2004.

  173. General Election Results: McCain Wins, Obama Loses (Live-Blogging) » Right Pundits Says:

    [...] if you are right, congratulations on clairvoyance and a lofty promotion to the esteemed ranks of pundit prognosticator. You deserve [...]

  174. Bubba Says:

    *** “MSNBC will call the state for Obama soon after the polls close. They want to call it early in order to depress turnout in places like Colorado where polls will remain open three hours longer.” ***

    Who the hell will they be depressing? I don’t know too many conservative or even swing voters who watch MSNBC. The bigger danger is the one we’ve seen all along this election season: big media is going all out to elect Obama. They’ll ALL call a traditional red state for Obama to depress turn out. They’ve probably already agreed on which state that is – maybe Virginia.

    I think there’s a decent chance of an electoral tie, too.

  175. Rex Little Says:

    he kept the liberals from creating a “democratic socialistic” society by exercising one of two presidential powers–he vetoed and vetoed and vetoed

    Say what?! Bush served his entire first term, and more than a year of his second, without vetoing a single bill. To date, he has vetoed 12. That’s fewer than any President since Warren Harding, and fewer than any full-term President since Lincoln. (Source: Wikipedia)

  176. Wes Says:

    Hey Bob,
    interesting stuff…I did my own calculations and came up with similar results:

    Check it out if you have time.

  177. Arkady Says:

    I am impressed with the level of detail and analysis here. I have spent months researching and writing about this election and I cannot even come close to that kind of determination.

    I really hope you are wrong about PA, McCain needs to win more convincingly to get away from chaos. Although I too am seeing chaos down the road.

  178. TJ Says:

    I more or less agree with you on all the states, including that PA is questionable and will be very close. Its electoral votes have had a tendency of going barely Democrat in all but the most impressive Republican landslides. Nevertheless, there have been more the a few Democrat faux pas there recently (e.g. “bitter”, “cling to guns and religion”, “bankrupt coal”, etc.) That spells definite potential for a McCain upset.

    Ohio will go to McCain, but the 200,000 fraudulent votes by left-wing ghosts and dead pets will reduce McCain’s otherwise impressive victory margin there. I am not so sure that McCain will win NH – I think it is tough to predict either way. I also think that it is to tough to predict how Nevada will go – McCain may win after all.

    A final point that merits some discussion:


    McCain really might win one electoral vote there. Isn’t it plausible for McCain to win the more conservative district? That would put him at 270 electoral votes to win even if he loses NH, NV, and PA.

  179. John Says:

    I filled one in for John & Sarah today.
    Ohio is full of hard working Americans. We don’t have the time or the patience to break in a newbie. We also have coal and oil that we are very proud to produce.

    Nobama you forgot what Ohio and America are made of…. We are not stupid.

  180. Janine Says:

    Wake up and smell the coffee. Even Karl Rove is predicting Obama by a landslide.

  181. Malcolm Says:

    Janine: No Conservative would ever start a phrase with “Even Karl Rove…”, so it’s evident where your sympathies lie.

    That appeal to Rove as an authority was pretty feeble, but I suppose that’s the best you can muster. Pity that you’re incapable of arguing the facts. (sigh)

  182. Covey Says:

    I pray you are correct. I think it is going to be an interesting run!!!

  183. Brutus Says:

    Wow!! Were you ever wrong! Wishful thinking I guess.

  184. Jen Says:

    How do you explain how wrong you were? When I read your prediction, I thought “no way”, but I had no idea how pathetic and wrong your analysis was. How do you explain that?

  185. Yorick Says:

    LOL! The most hysterical case of fantastical, “think-happy-thoughts” thinking eh-var!!

  186. SmilingJ Says:

    I read this yesterday and it motivated me to call more people to get out and vote. Not for anyone in particular, but just to vote. So I say I will grade you now and not wait for Wed morning. Ohio, PA, FL, CO, VA to name a few were all taken by Pres-Elect Obama, despite your projections. I will give you a D. At least you made the effort.