America in microcosm

Byline: | Category: 2008 Presidential Election | Posted at: Thursday, 30 October 2008

Pennsylvania and Ohio are a lot alike.  I grew up in one and have driven countless times the length and breadth of the other.  Both states are industrial and rural.  Blue collar and professional.  Old cities and new suburbs.  They are America in microcosm.  That is why every year Ohio and Pennsylvania are presidential battlegrounds.

Politically, the Keystone State tends to be a point or two more Democratic than the nation as a whole, while the Buckeye State leans a point or two in the opposite direction.

The similarity of Pennsylvania to America is reason enough that this Mason-Dixon poll should give Barack Obama concern and John McCain hope.  It has Barack Obama leading in the state by a margin of 47-43 with 9 percent undecided.  My own reading of all the polls tells me that this is very close to where America is: Obama probably leads by 3 to 4 points, but with less than half the vote.  The remaining undecideds are demographically more inclined to support McCain.  Most of them won’t support Obama, but they might not vote at all. 

They’re looking to John McCain for a reason to vote.

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One Response to “America in microcosm”

  1. Sean Braisted Says:

    My own reading of all the polls tells me that this is very close to where America is: Obama probably leads by 3 to 4 points, but with less than half the vote

    But you aren’t reading all the polls, you are selectively cherry-picking those which are most favorable to your candidate.

    50% lead in Pennsylvania.